US strikes on Iran ruin peace hopes

In a bid to defuse the conflict over Iran's nuclear program, foreign ministers from Europe's top three powers hurried to meet their Iranian counterpart on Friday in Geneva, reported Reuters. Those hopes collapsed on Saturday when US President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran's three main nuclear sites, in support of Israel's military campaign. "It's irrelevant to ask Iran to return to diplomacy," Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, visibly angry, told reporters in Istanbul on Sunday, promising a "response" to the US strikes. "It's not time for diplomacy now."

Trump, who said the US airstrikes "obliterated" the sites, warned in a televised speech on Saturday the US could attack other targets in Iran if no peace deal was reached and urged Tehran to return to the negotiating table. Reuters spoke to seven Western diplomats and analysts who said the prospect of negotiations was negligeable for now, with an unbridgeable gap between Washington's demand for zero enrichment by Iran and Tehran's refusal to abandon its nuclear program. "I think the prospects of effective diplomacy at this point are slim to none," said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank headquartered in Washington.

"I'm much more worried about escalation, both in the short and the long term." According to European diplomats, the three European allies - Britain, France and Germany - were not made aware of Trump's decision to strike Iran ahead of time. French President Emmanuel Macron had promised on Saturday — just before the US strikes — to accelerate the nuclear talks, following a call with his Iranian counterpart.

One European diplomat, who asked not to be identified, acknowledged there was now no way of holding a planned second meeting with Iran in the coming week. In the wake of the US military action, any European diplomatic role appears likely to be secondary. Trump on Friday dismissed Europe's efforts towards resolving the crisis, saying Iran only wanted to speak to the United States.

Three diplomats and analysts said any future talks between Iran and Washington would likely be through regional intermediaries Oman and Qatar, once Tehran decides how to respond to the US airstrikes on its nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The attacks leave Iran with few palatable options on the table. Since Israel began its military campaign against Iran on June 13, some in Tehran have raised the prospect of withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to signal Iran's determination to accelerate enrichment, but experts say that would represent a considerable escalation and likely draw a forceful response from Washington.

Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment, said Iran's most obvious means for retaliation is its short-range ballistic missiles, that could be used to target US forces and assets in the region. But any military response by Iran carried the risk of miscalculation, he said.

"On the one hand, they want a strong enough response that they feel the US has actually paid a price. On the other hand, they don't want to encourage further escalation," he said.

Even before the US strikes, Friday's talks in Geneva showed little sign of progress amid a chasm between the two sides and in the end no detailed proposals were put forward, three diplomats said. Mixed messaging may have also undermined their own efforts, diplomats said.

European positions on key issues like Iran's enrichment program have hardened in the past 10 days with the Israeli strikes and the looming threat of US bombing, reported Reuters. The three European powers, known as the E3, were parties to a 2015 nuclear deal that Trump abandoned three years later during his first term.