Bombing alone is unlikely to secure regime change

By bombing three key nuclear sites in Iran, Donald Trump has made the US into a partner in Israel's war on that country. This is no surprise. Trump is to blame for the crisis which precipitated Israel's attack on Iran. Petty, peevish, and jealous Trump pulled the US out of former President Barack Obama's main foreign policy achievement. This was the 2015 six-power agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. If Trump he had not withdrawn, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would have been deprived of his longed-for pretext to wage war on Iran. Since 1992, Netanyahu has been falsely claiming that Iran is only years, months, and weeks away from obtaining nuclear weapons and Israel has the right to defend itself by hitting nuclear facilities.
At the time Trump took office in 2017, enrichment had been limited to 3.67 per cent for use in civilian power stations, 98 per cent of Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had been eliminated, and Iran's nuclear facilities were constantly monitored by Iinternational Atomic Agency (IAEA) cameras and frequently inspected by IAEA teams. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi recently said at that stage Iran's nuclear programme was "primitive." Israel is the region’s sole advanced nuclear power as it possesses an estimated 70-100 or more devices which can be delivered to targets.

After ending US compliance with the deal in 2018, Trump reinstated sanctions on countries, businesses, institutions, and banks seeking to do business with Iran. The other five signatories — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — were handcuffed and could not deliver without attracting US sanctions. Iran waited a year before breaching the terms of the deal.

Since mid-2019, Iran began enriching uranium to 20 per cent which can be used for research reactors and 60 per cent which is close to the 90 per cent needed for weapons. Its stockpile now amounts to more than 400 kilos and IAEA scrutiny has been curbed. Iran has denied that it seeks nuclear weapons.

While saying Iran's uranium stockpile was "at its highest level" and "unprecedented for a non-nuclear-armed state," US National Director of Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified before a Congressional committee in March that US intelligence continued "to estimate that Iran is not producing a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program[me] he suspended in 2003." US intelligence agencies reported that Iran would need three years to produce nuclear weapons once given the order by Khamenei. Trump contradicted Gabbard by saying that she was "wrong" and claimed Iran could obtain weapons within "a matter of weeks" without providing proof. "We can't allow that to happen."

Bombing nuclear sites is a dangerous, illegal t act, a blatant violation of Article 56 of the 1949 Geneva Convention, which prohibits targeting nuclear power facilities. Striking an active enrichment site or spent fuel facility could release radiation, killing civilians and polluting aquifers, agricultural land, and global ecosystems for many generations.

Trump's assertion that Iran is close to weaponisation must be compared by George W. Bush's lies that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction which were used to justify his 2003 war to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and occupy his country. The difference between then and now is the absence of boots on the ground. Neither Israel nor the US has been prepared to deploy troops. Bombing alone is unlikely to secure regime change.

Netanyahu has used false claims as over Iran's nuclear programme to cover for this goal. Since the clerics ousted the pro-Israel shah in 1979 and adopted the Palestinian cause, Iran has been seen by Israel as a major regional antagonist and rival.

There are several steps Iran must master before achieving weaponisation. Iran must design and manufacture an explosive device and transform it into a small, compact warhead to be delivered by an aircraft or a ballistic missile. According to experts this process is very complicated and could take years to achieve. Once in flight, the delivery vehicle must avoid anti-aircraft defences, arrive at the target, and detonate.

Trump gave Israel two weeks to attain its military objective in Iran before he decided whether the US should enter the conflict, but he took this decision in just two days before bombing the nuclear sites. IHe is aware that Israel cannot continue with the war for very long. “The main factor which will really determine the cost of the war will be the duration,” former Bank of Israel governor Karnit Flug told the Wall Street Journal. She said Israel’s economy could sustain a short campaign. “If it is a week, it is one thing. If it is two weeks or a month, it is a very different story.”

The Wall Street Journal has estimated the war is costing Israel $200 million a day. Intercepting more than 400 incoming Iranian missiles with the Arrow 3 and David's Sling systems is the largest expenditure as each is priced at $700,000 to $4 million. Israeli F-35 warplane flights of some 1,800 kilometres cost about $10,000 an hour without adding the expenditure on guided bombs. The Israeli Aaron Institute for Economic Policy which said a month-long war could cost $12 billion.

Non-military costs are mounting. Hundreds of 500 people have been evacuated from their homes and are being housed by the state. Damage has been inflicted on civilian infrastructure. The main hospital in Beersheba and the research buildings of the iconic Weizman Institute have been struck. Reconstruction of hundreds of buildings struck by Iranian missiles could amount to $400 million. Businesses, restaurants, shops, and offices have been shuttered. Fearful Israelis are fleeing the country on expensive boat journeys to Larnaca in Cyprus and on limited flights leaving Tel Aviv's main airport which is supposed to reopen for normal business today.

Haaretz liberal daily columnist Gideon Levy said Israelis were instantly euphoric over the successes of Israeli pilots on missions over Tehran and Israeli agents who assassinated Iranian military personnel and nuclear scientists. However, he argued this has evaporated because of the price Israeli society is paying. Rushing to bomb shelters is not a "sustainable way of life." This war cannot go on, he said. "Everything is paralysed Economy is paralysed." He said he is not sure whether either Netanyahu or Khamenei can end the war so the timing of the war could depend on undependable Donald Trump.