Netanyahu diverts global attention from Gaza war

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu chose Friday 13th as his lucky day, the day he would at long last launch his attack on Iran. As he has not been compelled to ceasefire in his Gaza war or held accountable for Israel's repression in the occupied West Bank, Netanyahu clearly believes there are no restraints on Israel. It can do whatever it wants. He prepared 30 years for this attack by falsely playing up Iran as an existential threat to Israel and arguing that military force was the sole means for countering this danger. He ignored the fact that the Western powers have armed Israel, including with nuclear weapons, to counter any attack from any or all regional antagonists.

Netanyahu got lucky. His bombs have fallen on Iran's nuclear facilities and his drones and agents have slain Iran's senior military commanders and nuclear scientists. Most of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran at Israel have been intercepted over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. For Netanyahu, the ratio of death sand injuries has been acceptable. By striking Iran, Netanyahu has preserved his fragile coalition which last week could have collapsed due to Ultra-Orthodox anger over the failure by parliament to exempt Jewish religious students from military service. Thanks to his low approval rating, he could not expect to emerge victorious from a new election and could face jail time over court cases for corruption.

He also benefits from national unity forged by a new war at a time the Israeli public has become sharply divided over the Gaza war. Most Israelis are angry over his refusal to ceasefire and secure the return of Israeli hostages before Hamas is eliminated. Having failed to secure Hamas’ end in 20 months, the Israeli army is unlikely to achieve it anytime soon. Reserve military officers and soldiers have refused to join their units while the war front has been in Gaza. Resisting attacks by Iran could force them to respond positively to a call-up.

Netanyahu also diverted global attention from his war on Gaza which has killed more than 55,000 Palestinians, devastated the strip, and elicited International Criminal Court warrants for his arrest for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Timing was in Netanyahu's favour as Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has been reduced by Israeli attack to the vulnerable Houthis in Yemen. Hamas has been fought to a standstill in Gaza where 2.3 million Palestinians are being starved of food and medicine by Israel’s blockade. Hizbollah has been corralled in Lebanon and Iraq's pro- Iranian militias have done nothing against Israel or US forces deployed in that country or elsewhere in the region.

Netanyahu has also finished off US-Iranian negotiations on reviving the 2015 agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. This was torpedoed by Donald Trump in 2018 under pressure from Netanyahu and pro-Israeli US legislators. US and Iranian teams had completed five rounds of talks and had been set to meet yesterday for a sixth in Oman which has been brokering the effort. Trump had been optimistic a deal could be reached.

Netanyahu can also celebrate the postponement of this week's high-level UN conference sponsored by Saudi Arabia and France on reviving the two-state solution for the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu and his coalition partners not only reject the two-state solution but have announced the planting of 22 new Israeli settlements among the 160 already in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which - along with Gaza - Palestinians demand for their future state.

However, Netanyahu's gamble on Friday 13th could prove to be unlucky. Friday 13th is regarded in the West as an inauspicious day. While Netanyahu has made no secret of his intention of bringing down the Iranian regime, this has made the ruling clerics all the more determined to resist and fight back, risking the lives of targeted Iranian figures and civilians.

Tehran could respond to Netanyahu's bombs by changing its policy on bombs. Iran has pledged not to manufacture nuclear bombs, refrained from enriching uranium to 90 per cent purity for weaponization, and allowed intrusive monitoring of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Following Israel's attack, Tehran could very well build weapons in secret sites buried deep within mountains where they could be inaccessible to the IAEA and Israeli bombs, including US-supplied 900 kg bunker-busters.

Netanyahu may have also alienated mercurial Trump, Israel's chief international supporter. In the run-up to Netanyahu's attack, Trump — who claims to be a peacemaker — said, "I'd love to avoid a conflict. " He declared the US and Iran were "fairly close" to reaching agreement in ongoing talks. He stated, "As long as I think there is an agreement I don't want [Israel] going in because i think that would blow it."

However, once Netanyahu launched his attacks on Iran, erratic Trump contradicted himself by suggesting that Israeli bombs might convince Iran to conclude a deal with the US on Trump's terms. This shows how little he understands Iran. It promptly responded by firing missiles at Israel to restore a certain level of deterrence and credibility. Israel's strikes have boosted Iran's hardliners who have argued for decades in favour of nuclear bombs. Iran's government reacted to Israel's onslaught by saying, "The world now better understands Iran's insistence on the right to enrichment, nuclear technology and missile power." Tehran is aware of the fate of countries like Libya, which cancelled its nuclear programme in 2003 and Ukraine, which rid itself of stockpiles of nukes when the Soviet Union collapsed. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and brutally murdered while Russia invaded Ukraine.

Nuclear bombs do not solve anything. While believed to act as a deterrent, they have not deterred India and Pakistan, undeclared nuclear powers, from engaging in risky clashes, most recently over 78-year flashpoint Kashmir.

While Netanyahu's attack on Iran may be regarded by some Western leaders as "self-defence" rather than unprovoked aggression, a war crime, his forever Gaza war has destroyed Israel's claims of victimhood and impunity which for nearly eight decades has protected Israel from accountability.