Right-wing Nawrocki wins Polish presidential poll by narrow margin

Every election in Europe is now turning out to be an existential battle between liberals and conservatives, between pro-European Union (EU) and Euro-sceptics. After the Romanian presidential election, where the pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan clinched the election over the anti-EU conservative George Simion. Dan won a comfortable 54 per cent of the vote, though it was not overwhelming one in his support or for liberalism. The conservatives lost but they are in the field.

In Poland, it was the turn of the conservative Karol Nawrocki who edged past his liberal rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, by a narrow margin. Nawrocki got 50.82 per cent of the vote. But the Euro-sceptics were happy. George Simion, who was the runner-up in the Romanian election, wrote on X, “Poland WON”. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called Nawrocki’s win a “fantastic victory”. The political divisions are sharp across the national boundaries in Europe. Nawrocki is opposed to refugees, and in Poland the refugees are from Ukraine.

Nawrocki will inevitably be at loggerheads with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition. Tusk has been trying to reverse the previous conservative government’s judicial reforms which raised objections from the European Constitutional Court. It said the process of the appointment of judges does not ensure impartiality of the judges.

The conservatives think it is interference from Europe. Nawrocki has already declared that he intends to protect Poland’s sovereignty and support laws that favour the Polish. As president, Nawrocki has but little leeway in thwarting the liberal government. The presidential veto can be overturned by a specific majority rule of parliament.

But Prime Minister Tusk does not command the required majority in parliament. It is because of the shortfall in the parliamentary numbers, that Nawrocki’s predecessor, another conservative, Andrzej Duda, was able to block the reformist legislation of Prime Minister Tusk.

The divisions seem to be almost evenly balanced, with conservatives accounting for half the electorate, and the liberals comprising the other half. A 32-year-old IT specialist, Patryk Marek, summed it up well: “Everything was on a knife edge. Feelings are for sure mixed for this moment. But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she believed EU’s cooperation with Poland will continue. She is a conservative herself but a nuanced one, and quite opposed to the right-wing nationalism dominating European politics.

Krzysztof Izdebski, director of think-tank Batory Foundation commented, “Trump will have more to say in Polish politics.” It is a reference to the fact that European nationalists and right-wingers are inspired by US President Donald Trump’s worldview and his electoral success.

European conservatives are indeed on the rise and riding a success wave in many countries in France, in Italy, Germany, and in many of the former Soviet satellite countries in Eastern Europe. The success of the right-wing parties is mainly due to the economic crunch that most European countries are witnessing, where lack of growth is affecting the job market and it is increasing the frustration of the people.

The right-wing politicians are directing this frustration and anger on to the immigrants. Turning away the immigrants will not put Europe back on the path of economic growth. And the right-wing governments and leaders have no easy answers or plans to boost economic growth.

It is the same problem that Trump is facing in America. With his tariff wars and his hostility towards immigrants, he is not able to turn around the American economy. And that is the reason that many of the Americans who had voted for Trump are disappointed with him. The same challenge awaits right-wing governments in Europe as well.