‘Fresh ideas’ mooted to close gap in US-Iran N-deal talks

Donald Trump has said he warned Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu against attacking Iran because Washington and Tehran are close to reaching a deal on limiting that country's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. He said this would be an unprecedented agreement as US as well as UN inspectors would be included on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) teams monitoring Iran's nuclear sites.

His declared objective is to make certain Iran is not preparing to make nuclear bombs.

Trump's statement suggests that that US is ready to accept Iran's "red line" — the right to enrich uranium — which Iran insists cannot be violated by any agreement. Iran demands domestic enrichment to 3.67 per cent for use in civilian power plants. The US previously flip-flopped on this issue. Washington demanded total shutdown of the nuclear programme, then agreed on low enrichment.

The programme was launched in the 1950s when the US provided a nuclear reactor to Iran under the Atoms for Peace Programme long before the shah was toppled by anti-US clerics in 1979.

To reassure the US and regional neighbours over its retention of a low level of enrichment, Tehran has suggested creating a consortium comprising the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tehran would make partners shareholders in exchange for funding and give them access to its technologies and provide them a with stake in developing an independent capacity for nuclear power generation.

The UAE has already established the first civil nuclear power plant in the Arab world with four operational reactors which should produce 25 per cent of Emirati electricity. The region's oil producing states have expressed eagerness to establish such facilities for a future when customers cut oil imports for environmental reasons or oil fields are no longer productive enough to generate large revenues.

Since Omani-mediated indirect talks began this spring, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to pull out if the US called for Iran to shut down its enrichment programme. Araghchi said this would amount to a violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to which Iran is a signatory.

Trump stated on May 25th that the latest round of negotiations was “very, very good.” He said there could be an announcement, presumably of a breakthrough, in coming days. "We've had some real progress, serious progress." Since he has threatened military action if no deal is reached, he added, "I would love to see no bombs dropped and a lot of people dead." Trump is eager for a foreign policy success while Tehran is under heavy domestic pressure for a deal as sanctions have crippled the economy and impoverished Iranians.

Following the fifth round of talks round in Rome on May 23rd, the US State Department declared, "The talks continue to be constructive — we made further progress, but there is still work to do" when the sides "meet again in the near future." Araghchi contended the issues were complicated and needed further discussions.

He said mediator Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi had suggested fresh ideas to close the gap between the sides. Busaidi posted on X, "We achieved some progress, although it was not conclusive" and expressed the wish that “outstanding issues can be clarified in coming days that allows for meaningful progress toward a sustainable agreement."

During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 agreement limiting Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. After a year, Iran responded by breaching the 3.67 per cent enrichment limitation, produced a large stockpile of 20 and 60 per cent enriched uranium and cut inspections by the IAEA.

Sixty per cent is near the 90 per cent for weaponization. Iran has dismissed Western allegations that it intends to make nuclear arms and could produce enough highly enriched uranium for several devices from the existing stocks of 60 per cent pure. Experts have said Iran could take up to 18 months to make bombs once the decision to do so was taken.

While no date has been declared for a sixth round of talks, the experts from the sides are said to be holding discussions behind the scenes. To show willingness to compromise, Iran has proposed sending its stocks of highly enriched uranium to a third country, presumably Russia.

Moscow had been assigned this role under the original agreement reached during the Obama administration. Al Monitor cited the International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director Ali Vaez who said negotiators are moving toward a framework agreement that would postpone the enrichment issue until a more permanent deal is reached.

“When they realized that the gaps are too wide to bridge, they decided to go for a framework agreement in order to prevent the process from collapsing. What is very likely in the next few weeks is a statement of principles — basically very broad strokes that would defer some of the most difficult issues." Unwise pressures could torpedo this tactic.

Reuters reported that the US, UK, and Europe are preparing to urge the IAEA board at its meeting beginning on June 9th to declare Tehran in breach of its non-proliferation commitments, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which Tehran ratified in 1970. This prohibits the development, testing and transfer of nuclear weapons.

Since Iran has not violated the NPT, this would mark the first time this step has been taken in almost 20 years and could "enrage Tehran."

Such action could add further add complications to negotiations for a deal the US and Iran are striving to reach or, even, scupper the negotiations altogether.

As he is prone to taking unconsidered, wrongheaded moves, this proposed move has Trump's fingerprints all over it and he could end up shooting himself in the foot. It must be recalled that when Trump pulled out of the earlier deal and slapped down 1,500 sanctions, Europe, Russia and China could not deliver on promised benefits by circumventing the US grip on international banking and multinational business. This did not happen. Tehran responded by advancing and expanding nuclear research and development far beyond the basic level and escaped tight IAEA monitoring.