Too soon to tell of the success of Russia-Ukraine talks

The Russians and the Ukrainians have started talking to each other for the first time in Istanbul. This was after Russian President Vladimir Putin in a televised addressed agreed to do so.

It is not possible to delve into the reason for the change of heart in the Russian president because he was not ready for any kind of talks. The two delegations met in Turkey’s capital. Turkey Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan chaired the meeting.

The Ukrainian delegation was led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, and the other members of the Ukrainian delegation were First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kyslytsya, domestic intelligence service’s deputy head Oleksandr Poklad, and foreign intelligence unit deputy head Oleh Luhovsky.

The Russian delegation was headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, and it included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin, and director of military intelligence agency Igor Kostyukov. Fidan told the delegations at the beginning of the meeting, “We have to seize this opportunity to move forward on the path of peace. Every day that is delayed causes more lives to be lost.”

Of course, it was not possible that there should be a breakthrough in a meeting between the delegations of two countries who had been at war with each other for three years. But there was a significant outcome when Russia and Ukraine agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners from each side. Russian delegation head Medinsky said after the two-hour meeting, “Overall, we are satisfied with the results and ready to continue contacts.”

He also said that the two sides had agreed to provide a detailed proposal for the ceasefire. Ukraine delegation head Umerov said, “I think the next step would be that the leaders-level meeting should be organised.” Fidan wrote on X, “Turkey would continue to make every effort to achieve a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine.”

Turkey has been playing an important role in the war in Ukraine. It had mediated along with the United Nations for Ukraine to export its grain through its Black Sea ports in July 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia trust Turkey as a neutral country.

Istanbul has close relations with Kyiv and Moscow. The European Union (EU) countries have been fiercely opposed to Russia and none of the European capitals could have served as a neutral venue for the talks. Interestingly, Turkey in many ways represents the West by virtue of its membership of the Western military alliance, the NATO.

Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity to Western news agency Reuters revealed that the Russian position was maximalist. Moscow is demanding that it would want to retain control of four regions in eastern Ukraine though they are not under Russian occupation.

Medinsky said that if Ukraine does not accept the peace offer made by Russia, it would be writing its own death. According to Medinsky, Russia can continue to fight as long as it needs to, and a reference was made to Russia’s 21-year-war with Sweden in the 18th century.

The talks will be drawn out. There is need for patience. The only urgency is for a ceasefire, and it is to be seen how quickly it can be reached. The Russians feel that they are in an advantageous position and they can make tougher demands on Ukraine at the negotiation table.

With Americans refusing to continue with the arms supplies to Ukraine, Kyiv may not be able to sustain a longish war. This despite the fact that EU members are determined to help Ukraine financially as well as militarily. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is aware of the painful fact that it is only America that can make some difference in the outcome of the war.