Putin’s surprise offer to talk directly to Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday offered direct talks without preconditions with Ukraine at Istanbul on May 15. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the Russian leader’s offer but said that a permanent ceasefire should precede the talks.

It is for the first time in three years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that Putin has talked of talks, and that too direct talks. But observers feel that Putin’s offer is not without complications, and that Putin is only keen to push through his agenda of seeking Ukrainian neutrality – that is, refrain from joining NATO – and of letting Russia keep the Ukrainian territory that it has already occupied, including Crimea.

This is indeed his agenda, and he is sure to put it forward at the talks, but it would be unrealistic of him to expect Ukraine and Zelensky accept all that he wants. The important thing is that Putin does seem to realise that the three-year war is not going anywhere, and that Russia has failed to realise its initial war goal of replacing the Zelensky regime with a pro-Moscow Ukrainian government in Kyiv.

Russian forces failed to occupy Kyiv and defeat Ukrainian resistance. It is indeed a fact that Ukraine may not have survived without military and financial assistance from the United States. The war has turned into a stalemate. The Ukrainians have failed to push back the Russian troops from the eastern conclaves in Ukraine and from Crimea invasion.

What is surprising is that Putin should have made the offer to hold direct talks. And he is keen on direct talks. This means that he wants to use the old familiar bonds between Russia and Ukraine to persuade the Ukrainians. And he must be aware that he would not be able to get anything out of the talks if he is not willing to concede something. The question is what is it that Putin is willing to concede.

He has indicated that Russia would guarantee the security and independence of Ukraine. It might be something that any Ukrainian leader would find it difficult to accept, especially after the 2022 invasion. Ukraine would want another country or group, either the United States or the European Union (EU). And that is exactly what Putin wants to avoid. He does not want any of the Western nations to have any say in what Russia wants to do in its own neighbourhood.

The Russian neighbourhood in effect is the old Eastern bloc and the old republics of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine. Ukrainians would not want to be in the shade of a Russian umbrella.

Whatever may be the outcome, Putin’s offer of talks marks a definite turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war. It marks the acceptance on the part of Putin that Russia cannot play the old Big Brother, and that Moscow has to learn to respect the old parts of the Soviet Union as independent entities.

As a bigger state, Russia may claim to be first among the equals but not beyond that. This would mean that Russia cannot demand that only a Moscow-friendly regime should govern in Kyiv. These are difficult issues for Putin and his advisers to tackle.

The responsibility of Ukraine to deal tactfully with Russia remains huge as well. Ukraine and Zelensky should realise that they cannot adopt a hostile attitude towards Moscow. Ukraine has to come to terms with Russia as the big neighbour and all that it implies. Kyiv must remain sensitive to the concerns of Moscow. The talks if they start will have to be held over many rounds, and issues have to be discussed in painstaking detail. The talks have to be candid and honest.