Japanese PM plays his card well in US

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on his visit to Washington seems to have struck a pragmatic relationship with American President Donald Trump, who has been on an imposing-tariffs-on-allies spree. Japan is also on Trump’s tariff radar because of the trade deficit that the US has with Tokyo.

But the two leaders did not mention tariffs, and it is being inferred that Ishiba had managed to hold the status quo. There was of course a give-and-take deal. Ishiba said that Japan’s investments in the US will be over $1 trillion, something that Trump had been demanding. At the same time, Trump also wants Japan to buy defence equipment from the Americans.

For his part, Ishiba seems to have got Trump to agree to review the Nippon-US Steel deal, which former president Joe Biden had stopped. Trump said that Nippon can buy shares in US Steel, but not buy the company. That is a sort of a compromise. So, has the Japanese leader saved his country from the American president’s tariff tantrum?

It looks like that for the moment, Ishiba played his cards well. Trump is yet to take a stance against the Japanese edge in the US-Japan trade relations. He has been following his general policy that America should have the upper hand in bilateral trade relations. Trump is yet to accept the trade-offs idea.

The two leaders had however covered some common ground with regard to China and North Korea. They have declared their intent to stand together in countering China’s aggressive position in the South China Sea and also its aggressive marketing policy of dumping cheaply-produced goods in foreign markets. The US and Japan have been traditional allies in Far East Asia for decades now, and that common bonding still holds good. The North Korean nuclear weaponry poses an immediate threat to Japan, and the US is the nuclear shield for Japan. It is a commitment that Trump might find it difficult to pull out from. Ishiba has now humoured Trump enough though it is to be seen whether the bonhomie between the two leaders will last.

Though President Trump believes in the idea that America should care for its own benefits and not bother too much with the traditional international politics of balance of power, he would understand sooner than later that America needs allies around the world, and it has to pay a certain price to be the global leader.

Trump wants America to be the global leader without yielding any ground to the allies. The US-Japan relations will show him that the two countries need each other to counter the Chinese dominance of the global markets. Imposing tariffs on Chinese imports will not be sufficient for the purpose.

America would need allies in the region and beyond to contain Chinese dominance. Japan will remain a key strategic ally for the US in the region, and America will have to humour Japan as much as Ishiba had humoured Trump during his visit to Washington. It would be a tactical mistake if President Trump were to believe that America can have its way without it giving anything in return.

The Japanese understand the diplomacy game better than Americans. It may appear that Japanese leaders are playing second fiddle to the Americans. The Japanese know that they need Americans, and that Americans need them as much.

But the Japanese do not feel the need to state the blunt truth, even baldly. They feel that there is no need to say anything because the facts point to the necessity of America and Japan working together. This would mean that President Trump cannot bully other countries if he wants America to get trade benefits from other countries like Japan.