Spike in first-time marriages in China in 2023

The news that there were 5.97 million first marriages in China in 2023, the highest in a decade, would have been an interesting statistic and nothing more. But it assumed significance because China’s population growth has been declining over many decades.

World population experts believe that by 2100 China’s population would go below the billion mark. This, after holding the most populous country in the world slot for decades. India has now a slender lead over China, and it has become the most populous country.

Chinese officials have countered the gloomy predictions of the global demographers saying that the decline in population growth rate was normal and in keeping with its economic growth, and the pattern follows that experienced by the developed economies of Europe and North America. At the same time, Chinese leaders had been urging the young people to get married and have children.

This has to be seen in the context of China’s population policy over the years. As experts the world over predicted population explosion the most dangerous threat to human development as there were not enough natural resources to sustain the exponential growth of population. It was the reiteration of the 19th century British economist Thomas Malthus’ gloomy prediction that population growth would outstrip food production.

Chinese leaders had imposed a strict policy of one-child family, even penalising those with more children. It has had its impact. But now with an expanding economy – China is the second largest after the United States – the felt need is that China needs more people. Today, the segment of senior citizens of those over the age of 65, and those who need to be taken care of by family, is increasing. The 65+ population is 216 million in 2023 in China. This poses social challenges of a different kind.

That is why, when the 2024 China Statistical Yearbook was released by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this month, which showed 5.97 million marriage registrations, an increase of 710,000 over the previous year, which is the highest in nine years, it has made everyone sit up. But Chinese demographers do not see this as the reversal of the trend of decline in population. The 2024 figures show that there is a decline to 4.75 million, a 16.6 per cent fall.

The 2023 spike in first-time marriage registrations is significant because the registration of marriage in 2022 reached a low of 5.26 million from a high of 11.93 million in 2013. Independent demographer He Yafu explains the reason about why the number of marriage registrations was so high in 2023: “The increase was largely attributed to people postponing marriage in 2022 due to the pandemic, choosing to marry instead in 2023, but the willingness of young people to marry and have children is continually low under the fear of great economic pressure.”

It would be interesting to see how the people and the leaders of China would handle the population question in reverse. Even with a population of 800 million by 2100, China would still have enough people to run an economy as large as that of the United States. Both the US and Europe would need to immigration of a large number of people to keep their economies running. The Chinese can manage on their own. The more important question is whether China can maintain the feverish pitch of economic and technological growth of the last quarter-century. The economic growth is the key to maintaining the living standards of the people. These are not simple problems with easy solutions. There is need for much planning and strategizing. Whatever its other faults, the Chinese Communist Party-dominated government is engaged in the task of managing the situation.