A Palestinian family leaves Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip with personal belongings. AFP

While fighting a war on the Gaza and Lebanese fronts, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has faced down his latest domestic challenge. The issue is exemption from military service for ultra-orthodox religious students. The Supreme Court argues exemptions are discriminatory and ended them today.  While responding positively to a petition submitted by Netanyahu for a 30-day extension, the court suspended government subsidies for seminaries where students have not received a deferral from the army or been excused from military service. The government has until the end of the month to appeal against the ruling and a nine-judge panel will hear arguments in favour of exemptions in May.

Around 180,000 seminarians currently receive government subsidies, and about 60,000 would be affected.  Although this appears to be a big deal. This is not the case because government subsidies amount to only 7.5 per cent of seminarian income. While ultra-orthodox rabbis and activists huffed-and-puffed over the latest threat to exemptions for seminarians and the loss of subsidies, ultra-orthodox parties did not quit Netanyahu’s coalition.  If they had, it would have fallen and a fresh election would ensue, an election which Netanyahu could very well lose. Government funding helps to maintain the seminaries and the exclusivity of the lifestyle of ultra-orthodox communities where members are educated separately and do not mix with non-orthodox and secular Israelis. Many continue to rely on subsidies for their livings and do not take up employment in the economy.

Ultra-orthodox communities are often among the poorest in the country. Some ultra-orthodox sects do not recognise Israel, arguing that the founding of a Jewish state must wait until the appearance of the messiah.  Army service for all able-bodied Israeli men and women builds national unity, provides military training for defence, and creates comradeship among different sectors of the society.  There is sharp competition for admission to specific units and certain posts. Service records can determine whether an Israeli gains admission to university and employment, and form the basis of a political career.  A refusenik, draft dodger, or someone who performs poorly while in the military can suffer life-long discrimination.  Despite the importance of military service, soon after the founding of the state, Israel’s first prime minister David Ben Gurion authorised exemptions for 400 men of military age studying the Jewish holy book, the Torah, at seminaries. The exemption has been in force for decades although there has been growing criticism over ultra-orthodox exclusion as the community, which has a high birth rate, has ballooned to comprise 13 per cent of the population. They can be expected to defend their military exemption and right to live apart from non-Orthodox Israeli society.

Ultra-orthodox commentators argue that study of the Torah is as important as serving in the military as the Torah holds that the territory Israel has conquered since 1948 was promised by God to the Jews. Tzippy Yarom-Diskind, a correspondent for the ultra-orthodox newspaper Mishpacha, contended, “Once can’t live here without admitting the fact that the Torah is what gave us the merit to live here and those who preserve the Torah protect our right to live here.”

Israel’s Chief Sephardic (Oriental rite) Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef stated on March 9th, “If they force us to join the army, we would all fly out of the country, buy tickets, and go. They have to understand this, all those secularists, they don’t get it.” He warned that “it puts the state at stake. They [secular Israelis] to understand that without the Torah, without kollels and yeshivas [Jewish colleges for Talmudic studies], the army would not be successful.” 

The exemption has not survived because of such warnings but because ultra-orthodox parties have joined Netanyahu’s multiple coalition governments. However, popular pressure on the judiciary, the government, and the administration to end the exemption has increased since the October 7th attack on southern Israel when Hamas killed 1,139 and abducted 240. Blamed for the failure of the Israeli intelligence agencies and army to detect Hamas’ intentions and pre-empt the assault, Netanyahu has launched a six-month war which Israel is not winning.  Hamas continues to fight despite the massive destruction of Gaza and the soaring death toll of at least 33,000 Gazans.

The war has also taken a heavy toll on Israeli soldiers: at least 600 have been killed and 3,160 have been wounded, 1,523 since ground operations began. Around 360,000 reservists have been called up, creating major personnel shortages in the Israeli economy, particularly in the high-tech sector.  This has led to a downgrade by Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch ratings agencies which predicted a negative outlook for the Israeli economy. Additionally, 200,000 Israelis have been forced out of their homes, kibbutzim, settlements, and urban communities. Many have been accommodated in hotels and other rented properties at government expense.  They have been urging Netanyahu to end the war quickly so they can return home.  Instead, he has ratcheted up the fighting on both the Gaza and Lebanon fronts.

Netanyahu has also given the war priority over returning the 130-odd hostages still held by Hamas.  Their families and supporters have demonstrated in the streets and squares of Israel’s cities and towns and set up a permanent protest camp in Tel Aviv.  When faced with rallies by either the displaced or hostages’ families, Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli police to disperse then with baton, water cannon and arrests. This is hardly the way a democratic leader normally responds to critics and opponents.

 A poll published on March 29th by the Hebrew daily Maariv showed that 45 per cent of Israelis prefer that war cabinet member Benny Gantz should become Israel’s next prime minister while only 38 per cent hold Netanyahu should return to this post. The survey revealed that Gantz’s National Unity Party would win 33 seats in the 120-member Knesset, an increase of 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud would get 19 seats, down from its current 32 seats.  The poll showed that he could muster only 46 seats and the opposition bloc 64, a useful majority.  Aware of the decline of his party and his personal popularity, Netanyahu has firmly refused to call early elections which are not due until 2026.  This gives him time to recoup his losses.

Netanyahu is convinced he is safe while in office from criminal prosecution and that continuing the Gaza war and violence on the Lebanese front will keep him in power.  He could go to jail if convicted for breach of trust, fraud, and bribery in his ongoing trial which began in May 2020. He could be sentenced to ten years if convicted of bribery, the most serious charge, and could become the first sitting Israeli prime minister to be removed from office if convicted and go to jail. He would of course inevitably appeal, dragging out the case.