Nicolas Maduro

Venezuelan President and Socialist Party leader Nicolas Maduro has been declared the candidate for the July 28 election, even as the opposition’s conservative candidate Maria Corina Machado has been disqualified by the country’s Supreme Court from holding public office till 2036 on charges of alleged crimes.

It is believed that the Supreme Court is controlled by the Maduro government. Maduro is confident of winning the election though in popularity rating he is trailing behind Machado. While Machado has the support of 54.5 per cent people, Maduro’s score stands at 13.9 per cent. Confident perhaps of the Supreme Court verdict disqualifying Machado, Maduro declared at the party rally where he was declared the candidate by Vice President Diosdado Cabello: “There’s just one outcome, the people’s victory on July 28. They haven’t been able to stop us, nor will they be able to.” The opposition wants Machado to step aside because by March 25, when the candidates will have to be declared, the legal ban on Machado is unlikely to go, and therefore her name will not appear on the ballot paper. But she is determined to fight till the end. Machado is unwilling to step aside because she won in the presidential primaries and won 90 per cent of the vote in the primaries.

This is the second time that Maduro will be contesting for another six-year term. In the 2018 election too, he had an easy time as the then main opposition candidate, Henrique Caprile, was disqualified by the Supreme Court. Caprile was poised to defeat Maduro.

Capriles is of the view that the opposition must fight the presidential election at all costs. He feels that it should not go uncontested. Though he feels that there is no question for finding a substitute to replace Machado because she has won the primaries, he thinks that a way must be found to put up a candidate and channelize the people’s desire to change the Maduro government. He says, “It is not about substitution. I would not speak of a substitute. Maria Corina was the one who won the primary, the issue is that the government unconstitutionally disqualified her. She said, “The issue is what to do, and we have to participate, appeal to the strength of the vote that can mobilize millions of Venezuelans who want a change from the Maduro government. This is the great challenge: we have to stand in the election and bet on a candidate who can channel the vote on July 28.” Without saying so explicitly, Caprile implies that the support garnered by Machado should be transferred to a candidate who would participate in the election.

Caprile’s is not the only view from the opposition ranks. Tomas Guenipa of the Justice First party thinks it is not wise to find a substitute for Machado. He is of the view that the entire opposition must stand in support of her. Antonio Ecarri of the Pencil Alliance thinks it is a folly to have a single candidate. His argument, “Having only one candidate is a tactical and strategic error. Democracy is weakened by abstention and polarization.” He points out that only 10 per cent of the people voted in the primaries and Machado is not necessarily the most popular.

The Venezuelan opposition is facing a “crucial moment in history”, according to Spanish newspaper El Pais. They have to move strategically to be able to defeat Maduro. A wrong would completely delegitimize them. But this is not going to be an easy decision. Standing with Machado come what may could be a dead-end with the Supreme Court’s disqualification order in place.