Trump’s legal battles do not affect his White House race

Donald Trump’s campaign for re-election will continue normally due to his appeal to the US Supreme Court to consider his claim to presidential immunity from prosecution over his efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. He faces trial for defrauding the US by denying the result of the vote and for instigating the January 6th, 2021, riots at the Capitol building where Congress was confirming Biden as president. Trump could be barred from standing if the Court finds he violated the US Constitution’s Article 14 which excludes from office anyone who promotes or takes part in insurrection.

The Court is expected to rule on “whether and… to what extent does a former president enjoy presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.” He is charged with conspiracy to defraud the US and conspiracy to deny citizens’ rights by overturning their votes.

Trump’s lawyers appealed to the Supreme Court after a federal appeals court rejected his contention that presidential immunity should protect him from prosecution. The Court is set to hear oral arguments after April 22nd and deliver a ruling in June. Since the Court was packed with conservative Trump appointees during his 2017-2021 term in office, it is expected the judges could decide in his favour. If the Court rules that he must stand trial, this would be unlikely to take place before the November election and if Trump wins a second term, he would pardon himself.

While Trump’s legal jeopardy over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election may have receded, he still faces multiple trials in other courts. His trial for paying porn star Stormy Daniels “hush money” to deny a relationship with him before the 2016 election is set to begin on March 25th. He fraudulently claimed the $130,000 his firm paid to her were “business fees.”

This will be the first ever trial of a US president. On May 20th, Trump’s Florida trial is to commence on his retention of classified government documents and an August 5th trial has been proposed for attempting to rig Georgia’s 2020 election and charges have been laid under the state’s racketeering laws.

However, it is not clear when and how the Georgia trial of Trump and 18 co-defendants will go ahead. This case has been jeopardised over accusations of a “conflict of interest” due to a romantic affair between Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and the lead prosecutor. The judge heard closing arguments last Friday. Trump also faces a New York court’s demand for $454 million penalty payment in a case of fraudulently overestimating Trump companies’ worth to attract bank loans and investors and understating income to avoid taxes. His lawyers have offered $100 million, arguing the half million demand cannot be raised by multi-billionaire Trump, but this has been rejected. Trump’s legal cases not only challenge his fitness for office but also prompt judges and legal officials at state level to prevent him from running in Republican primaries in their states. An Illinois judge has recently removed him from the March 11th ballot under the 14th Amendment barring candidates involved in insurrection. This was the third state to ban him – Colorado and Maine have already taken such action. Ballot challenges failed in Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Oregon. The Supreme Court has been asked to rule on the Colorado case which could create a precedent for the rest.

Trump is appealing court orders to pay journalist E. Jean Carroll $88.3 million for damages and defamation stemming from trials over sexual abuse in the 1990s. While this is a whopping sun, it amounts to a fraction of his wealth which has been estimated by Forbes at $2.6 billion at mid-February. His estimated $600 million in liquid assets could cover his fines and court-awarded payments.

None of these cases have reduced Trump’s standing and support with his base of loyal supporters and he may be picking up votes from diehard conservatives. Many believe he is tougher on immigration than President Joe Biden who has failed to stem the tide of Latino migrants flowing across the border with Mexico. While Trump pledges to back Israel in its war on Gaza, he promises to withhold US military support from Ukraine in its war against Russia. Both stands are popular with right-leaning Republicans but not moderate and liberal Republicans who do not want to see Trump return to the White House.

Opinion surveys show that Trump is slightly ahead of Democrat rival President Joe Biden who both have backing in the mid-to-high 40 percentile range. The race could go either way. If he wins, commentators predict he will enter the White House with a plan drawn up by think tanks which support him and will prepare for systematic implementation of his campaign promises. On the domestic front, this could involve major changes in appointment practices in the entrenched US bureaucracy which would permit Trump to fire senior professionals and replace them with political loyalists. He tried and failed to do this during his first time and Biden repealed regulations Trump put in place.

On controversial policies, Trump would be restrained to a certain extent by the House of Representatives and the Senate, particularly if Democrats are in the majority in one or both houses. A global warming denier, he has promised to drill for oil, stalling efforts to tackle climate change for another four years whatever costs the planet. Trump would insist that Latin American migrants seeking entry into the US would have to apply for asylum while in Mexico and be allowed to enter the US only when approved.

On the foreign front, Trump would have a freer hand as foreign policy is run by the president. He would be likely to reduce US support for NATO and demand Europe increase funding for the alliance. Ukraine would be a lost cause due to Trump’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Copying Biden, Trump would give full backing to Israel in its drive to crush the Palestinians but dismiss their right to self-determination to which Biden gives lip service. Trump would earn the enmity of countries which made most US commercial goods by raising tariffs on imports to protect domestic manufacture. While his policies would be disruptive, his authoritarianism, incoherence and erratic behaviour could undermine the US political system and alienate already disillusioned allies. In a CNN interview Trump’s niece psychologist Mary Trump warned US voters not to cast their ballots for him as he is a “prepubescent child” who “never grew up from growing up in an authoritarian household.”