Matteo Salvini

Five years ago, Matteo Salvini confirmed his status as a rising star of European far-right politics when his League party swept a third of the vote in Italian EU parliamentary elections.

His fortunes have since waned even as Italians have ushered in their most right-wing government since World War II, his popularity eclipsed by the ascent to power of his ally Giorgia Meloni and her nationalist Brothers of Italy party. Salvini’s League, a junior partner in the rightist coalition, is polling below 9% ahead of new European parliament elections in June, while Meloni’s party hovers close to the 30% mark, cementing its position as the largest force in Italy.

In an effort to rekindle support, Salvini has driven even further to the right on issues such as crime and relations with Brussels, but the shift has not yet moved the polls his way.

One of the League’s European lawmakers, Gianantonio Da Re, told Reuters that Salvini would face internal pressure to step down as leader unless he stopped the rot in the June election. League Senator Gian Marco Centinaio – a senior Salvini ally – ruled out the prospect of a looming leadership showdown, or the likelihood of the party performing badly in the EU election. But the pressure is building.

Salvini’s rightward lurch has caused discontent within his own party ranks and poses a problem for Meloni as she seeks to present her government as a reliable partner in Europe and beyond, according to some politicians, pollsters and academics. The future of right-wing politics across Europe is also in focus, the experts said, with Salvini the flagbearer for a more radical, anti-EU front while Meloni leads efforts to bridge the divide between mainstream conservatives and hardliners.

Belying his role as deputy prime minister, Salvini has appeared more like an opposition politician in recent weeks, enthusiastically endorsing protests by Italian farmers, despite the fact that one of their grievances is a government decision to remove agricultural tax breaks.

He has taken particular aim at EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a moderate centre-right politician who has forged unexpectedly close ties with Meloni.

“I wouldn’t vote for Ursula von der Leyen,” Salvini said last month, just after she had visited Rome to endorse publicly an African cooperation pact that is a cornerstone of Meloni’s foreign policy. In 2019, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy won 6.4% of the vote in the European election. Public support for the party has since shot up and is currently polling at about 28%, with the right-wing electorate seeing Meloni as a more trustworthy leader than the mercurial Salvini.

The premier now faces a dilemma, according to Reuters. She is still enjoying a prolonged public honeymoon after her 2022 domestic win, and she could now look to push above 30% in the June election by standing as a candidate herself, and win more seats both for her party and her alliance in Brussels.

Meloni’s group is part of a bloc of highly conservative parties in the EU parliament, while Salvini’s League is affiliated to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National group in France.

Many Italian voters do not want the government to prioritise hot right-wing issues of the past such as immigration and relations with Europe, according to a poll of 2,000 people published on Jan. 22 by research institute Demopolis which found the top issues were the cost of living, healthcare and taxation.

Pollster Antonio Noto said Salvini’s lurch right risked falling flat, with his approval ratings seeing no uptick even as he revives old populist themes that worked well in the past.

There are already murmurings of discontent within the League over Salvini’s strategy, notably when he revealed last month that he might put forward as the party’s lead candidate an army general who has published a best-selling book in which he disparaged LGBT people, migrants, and minorities.