Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump seeking Republican nomination for a second run for the White House made a predictable start with a win in the first party primary in Iowa. He had won 51 per cent of the vote with his rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 21 per cent and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley with 19 per cent of the voting trailing far behind. This seemed an inevitable result as Trump was dominating the opinion polls for months now.

It cannot however be said that Iowa sets the trend. It does not. There is a long trek of the primaries, first in New Hampshire next week, South Carolina on February 24 and Super Tuesday on March 5 when there would be primaries in 14 states. What is clear is Trump has a definitive edge over his rivals, and there are only two of them left in the field, DeSantis and Haley.

The Iowa election has revealed an interesting trend, which was evident in the 2016 presidential election which Trump had won. Most of the voters who favoured Trump were without a college degree, while DeSantis and Halley gathered votes of the college degree-holders. The educational divide between the Trump voters and those of his rivals is an interesting one. Most of the Democrat votes are also college degree holders and they also live in the suburbs, a section whose vote has clinched Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.

It is being estimated that there are more degree holders in America now than they were in 2016, and that even if Trump has it easy in getting the Republican presidential nomination, he may not be able to win the November election.

It is also noteworthy that the Iowan Republican party voters disclosed that the most important issue for them was immigration. They wanted strict measures against immigration and that is what Trump has been promising loudly and clearly. Secondly, there is a lot of anger among these voters against how government is being run, and they wanted radical changes.

This anti-government, anti-system sentiment goes in favour of Trump because he has portrayed himself since he lost the election in November 2020, that he is the victim of the system of government. Surprisingly, the party voters in Iowa felt that their economic position was good and that it was improving. It implies that President Biden’s economic policies have been helpful.

It looks like Trump is not expending too much energy over the primaries, and he is somehow sure that people at large, that is supporters of the Republican party, the conservatives in general, the poor among the whites in particular, are backing him fervently. They see Trump as their hero, challenging the system erected by the educated elites to keep ordinary people out. Trump also portrays himself as an arch anti-elitist, and this despite his enormous wealth.

A question of huge interest in the Republican primaries is who among the two competitors, DeSantis and Haley, will gain the maximum votes. The person who comes second could very well be chosen by Trump as the Vice-Presidential candidate. This is not of course necessary. He can choose someone who is not in the race.

Haley is indicating that she is not interested in the vice-presidential slot, but it is to be seen whether she will hold on to that position. Trump will hesitate to choose DeSantis as his vice-presidential mate because DeSantis is quite ambitious and may want to oust-Trump in many ways. Trump has had a disappointing experience with his former Vice-President, Mike Pence, who refused to do his bidding and stood by the 2020 electoral verdict.