Since Russia’s war in Ukraine began in February 2022, the Biden administration, NATO, US allies and the Western media have portrayed the campaign to defeat Russia as existential for Europe and global democracy. It is neither. Russia is not the author of the conflict although its army invaded Ukraine. The US and Europe repeatedly ignored warnings by Moscow to halt NATO’s eastwards creep towards the Russian border which is seen as threatening the security of “Mother Russia.” For Russian President Valadimir Putin NATO’s recruitment of Ukraine was a “red line.” Although Putin is an autocrat, the Ukraine war has nothing to do with democracy but involves geography.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has assumed the mantle of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill while London was being bombed in the Nazi blitz. He is not Churchill. Zelensky is an actor who has used his thespian skills to recruit ignorant Western leaders and sycophantic media to back him during a brutal drama which has brought only tragedy to Ukraine. The US and European Union (EU)have poured hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of tonnes of arms and ammunition into the war which has been stalemated since spring and has become a war of attrition. The US and NATO partners do not have enough ammunition to meet Ukraine’s demand. Right-wing politicians call a halt to financial and arms aid.

Despite poor prospects, US President Joe Biden has asked Congress for $106 billion in financial and military aid but this is facing serious opposition from Republicans in the House of Representatives who prioritise aid to Israel. In a bid to sustain support until the proposal is approved, the administration has announced a $425 million package which will come from funds already appropriated by Congress for Ukraine. Zelensky refuses to entertain the idea of negotiating a compromise with Russia which would finish off the notion that Ukraine would become a NATO member and agree to the territorial status quo with the Donbas and Crimea annexed by Russia. The West continues to foster Zelensky’s pipe dream. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Kyiv on Saturday to reassure Ukrainians of the bloc’s backing in the run up to a November 8th report on their country’s aspiration to achieve membership.

She favours fast track EU membership for Ukraine although the applicant paired with Ukraine, Moldova, has not been granted special treatment and some EU members are likely to resist such a push. They have earned membership by completing the hard decade-long work of harmonising their laws, regulations and systems of governance with the EU. The first thing Ukraine must do to qualify for EU accession is eliminate rampant and massive corruption, for which Kyiv is notorious. Zelensky has not been able to do this even in his entourage. He has fired senior military men charged with profiting from the provision of food to the Ukrainian army and sacked two high ranking officials who have been accused of embezzling funds for humanitarian aid. While he has equated corruption with treason Zelensky has failed to root out widespread graft and nepotism which permeates every aspect of life in Ukraine.

Former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker dismissed the possibility of Ukraine’s EU membership in an October interview with Augsburger Allgemeine. He said, “Anyone who has had anything to do with Ukraine knows that this is a country that is corrupt at all levels of society. Despite its efforts, it is not ready for accession; it needs massive internal reform processes.” He dismissed early Ukrainian membership of the bloc, “Making false promises would be neither good for the EU nor for Ukraine.” The long haul is not promising for Zelensky, US President Joe Biden, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and others in the Western camp. Ahead of Ukraine’s touted spring offensive which was supposed to drive Russian troops out of Ukraine, Moscow ordered the establishment of a wide fortified front line which has, so far, halted the Ukrainian advance.

The casualty count has risen since the so far fruitless offensive was launched. The New York Times reported on August 18th that US official said military casualties on both sides had reached nearly 500,000. Ukrainian fatalities were close to 70,000 with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded in a population of 44 million. Russia suffered 120,000 deaths and 170,00 to 180,000 wounded in a population of 143 million. Ukrainians of military age have responded to the high toll by trying to emigrate or secure means to escape the draft. Facing an indefinite conflict, Ukrainian soldiers, officials, and civilians have become war weary. Their faith in the war effort has plummeted.

The UN reported 9,806 Ukrainian civilians had been killed and 17,748 injured between February 24th, 2022, and October 9th, 2023. Ukrainian infrastructure is also being systematically damaged and destroyed as Russia has stepped up bombing and drone attacks. Ukraine’s electricity networks have been targeted as the weather changes and winter approaches. Military operations on both sides will be hampered by cold, snow, frozen ground, and ice but Ukraine, which is on the offensive, will be affected more than Russia which is in defensive posture.

The situation in this region has been overshadowed by the situation in this region. Public interest in the Ukraine war has diminished despite attempts by Western media to recapture popular attention by publishing human interest stories. Without popular support, US politicians and European governments could succumb to Ukraine war fatigue. This would be dangerous for Kyiv which relies heavily on Western backing to sustain the war. Russia simply has to maintain its current posture and wait out the warmongers. The longer the war limps on, the greater the death and devastation. The World Bank reported in spring this year that the cost of reconstruction could be $411 billion. The US argues Ukraine will require a Marshall Plan similar to the post-World War II reconstruction programme. Unless Zelensky sweeps away corruption there will be little or no international institutional and foreign commercial investment in Ukraine. The sooner the war ends, the better. If he survives, Zelensky could focus on clearing up corruption.