The military rulers of Myanmar after moving deposed pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from a prison to a government guest house in the new capital, Naypyitaw have announced pardon for six of her alleged crimes, which would result in lessening the 33-year prison sentence by six years. The military’s spokesperson, Zaw Min Utn, told Eleven Media Group.

The decision has been interpreted differently. For one group of pro-democracy protesters, this is a response by the military leaders to pressure from Western countries and also from Myanmar’s south-east Asian neighbours. The other group felt that this was a mock pardon and it did not mean anything substantial in the status of Suu Kyi. The 78-year-old Suu Kyi is the popular leader of the pro-democracy movement in the country, whose party had won an election for the first time in 2015 after she was released from prison after 19 years, and her party again won the election in 2020.

It is after the 2020 election victory that the military had stepped in, alleging corruption in the election victory, and the whole government was brought down in 2021. Suu Kyi had denied all the charges. The military had said along with Suu Kyi, 7,000 other political prisoners were freed. The military’s State Administration Council had also announced the reduction of four years from former president Win Myint’s prison term of 173 years. He too has been shifted from prison to a guest house. The supporters of Suu Kyi argue that Suu Kyi and others should be freed unconditionally because they were arrested arbitrarily. Thailand’s foreign minister Don Pramudwinai had said that he had met Suu Kyi and said that she was in good health and that she supported dialogue to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar.  

Meanwhile, ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) is hopeful that it would be able to help in resolving the Myanmar crisis through its Five-Point Consensus, which it had evolved as early as April 2021, along with the military junta’s five-point programme of restoring democratic government with fresh elections in the country. This became clear after Thai foreign minister Pramudwinai’s meeting with Suu Kyi on July 9. Don has stressed to fellow-ASEAN leaders that it is necessary that Suu Kyi and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing – whom the Thai minister has described as the “two primary stakeholders” – talk to each other to settle their differences. The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus (FPC) includes an end to violence in the country, dialogue among all the parties, the appointment of a special envoy, humanitarian assistance by ASEAN and the special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to meet all the parties. The military had initially agreed to the ASEAN plan but later backed out.

The growing concern about the situation in Myanmar is that of armed resistance groups that have merged in the country, National Unity Government (NUG), People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and also the various Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), and that this could lead to a veritable civil war, and that it is the civilian population that would bear the brunt of the civil war. It is to avoid the confrontation, that ASEAN wants to work out its FPC plan. There is also the danger of the armed resistance groups getting stronger because of aid from the United States, which remains humanitarian and non-lethal, but it strengthens resistance. Thailand is also keen that the peace plan is made to work because Myanmar has been witnessing a flight of people who are being accommodated in special camps in the border districts inside Thailand.

There is also the perception that the military rulers in Myanmar also feel the pressure to negotiate with the democracy groups because of the faltering economy which would make it difficult for the military to be in control of the situation.