Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary election could decide whether that vast country continues along the Ottoman path decreed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has been in charge since 2003 or reverts to the secular course set in 1923 by the founder of the modern Turkish state Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Opinion polls show that the result is too close to call and that neither Erdogan nor his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu are expected to win outright with 50—plus per cent of the vote in the first round and the presidential contest will go into a second round which will be held on May 28.

Recent polls take into consideration that two outsiders — who have no hope of winning — take away votes from Kilicdaroglu, depriving him of a first—round victory. The candidate whose party received a parliamentary majority in the first round will have a major advantage in the second. The assembly election is also expected to be a close contest between Erdogan’s fundamentalist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Kilicdaroglu’s secular Republican People’s Party (CHP). Both have made electoral aliances with much smaller parties which deliver essential votes.

The AKP’s support ranges from 33.1—35.8 per cent while the CHP’s backing ranges from 29.1—30.6 per cent to 30.6 percent. Other parties which have joined the main coalitions are likely to secure significant numbers of seats. The leftist, pro—Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) — the third largest party which gets about two—thirds of the Kurdish vote — has thrown its weight behind Kilicdaroglu. Kurds amount to about one—fifth of the 85—million Turkish population and the HDP garnered more than 10 per cent of vote in previous elections.

Born in 1954 into a poor conservative Muslim family, Erdogan, 69, grew up in a working class neighbourhood of Istanbul and the port city of Guneysu where his father was a captain in the coast guard. He attended a conservative religious elementary school and a public high school but did not complete university education. He joined the fundamentalist Welfare Party and made his debut in politics in 1994 when he became mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan faced a series of bannings of parties based on religion before founding the AKP as a Muslim democratic party based on Europe’s Christian Democrats. The AKP won the 2002 election and Erdogan became prime minister in 2003.

Erdogan courted the Kurds after his rise to power with the aim of ending a violent Kurdish struggle for self—determination but after talks collapsed in 2015, he cracked down on the Kurds, jailing thousands of activists, dismissing elected Kurdish officials, and launching racist attacks on Kurds who are of Indo—European rather Turkic ethnic stock.

Erdogan’s attempt to prevent the HDP from running in this election forced it to form a new party called the Green Left. The HDP declared backing Kilicdaroglu because it shares his goal of ending Erdogan’s one—man rule and amending the Turkish constitution to revert to the parliamentary system of governance which he had turned into a presidential system by means of a referendum.

An economist and former civil servant, Kilicdaroglu has had a far less dramatic career than Erdogan. As leader of the opposition since 2010, Kilicdaroglu has partially reactivated the CHP and increased its share of the vote. CHP candidates won the 2018 mayor elections in Turkey’s most populous cities Istanbul and Ankara, but the party has not defeated the AKP and Erdogan in national elections.

Born in 1948 in Tunceli Province in eastern Turkey, Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi, a mystic sect with Islamic roots but is non—Muslim. His father was exiled after he took part in the 1937—38 rebellion by Kurds from the eastern Dersim region during which tens of thousands of Kurds and Alevis were murdered or displaced.

In November 2011 soon after Kilicdaroglu assumed leadership of the CHP, Erdogan made a point of publicising Kilicdaroglu’s religious background by issuing an apology for the massacre, calling it “one of the most tragic events of our near history.” Erdogan’s aim was said to be to discourage Muslims from voting for an Alevi.

In a bid to counter Erdogan’s policy of polarisation against Kurds and Alevis, Kilicdaroglu has pledged to include all identities, faiths and lifestyles. “They [the AKP} polarised us profusely. Neighbours began to question each other’s identities. They began to question each other’s faith. Each of us has begun to fly into a rage. We have to leave this behind,” he said.

The main issues in this election are Erdogan’s two—decade rule. During this time his controversial economic policies have impoverished Turks, his harsh crack—down on dissent has diminished Turkey’s democracy, and the presence in Turkey of 3.5 million Syrian refugees he welcomed has created deep popular resentment. This could increase when some of the 240,000 Syrians who obtained Turkish nationality appear at polling stations on election day. Many if not most will vote for Erdogan and the AKP although he is calling for the repatriation of refugees and is currently courting Syrian President Bashar al—Assad with the aim of securing his agreement to the mass return of the unpopular Syrians to their homeland.

Young voters have been alienated by Erdogan’s adoption of “Ottomanization” by promoting a conservative religious agenda, meddling in Syria with the aim returning Ottoman rule to a neighbouring state, and creeping annexation of Turkish—Occupied north Cyprus where mainland settlers outnumber Turkish Cypriots.

His government’s slow and inadequate response to the devastating Feb.6 twin earthquakes in southeast Turkey has angered many Turks, particularly those who live in the area devastated by the quakes. Many had been supporters of Erdogan and the AKP. At least 50,000 people were killed, more than 121,000 injured, and tens of thousands rendered homeless in 11 Turkish provinces. Damage has been estimated at $104 billion.

The negative political baggage Erdogan carries would unseat any less cunning politician but has not ruled him out in an election which is historic as it is being conducted during the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the Turkish state by Ataturk. Since he also established the CHP, Kilicdaroglu is fighting hard to return Turkey to the socially progressive and democratic policies espoused by Ataturk.

Photos: Reuters