Heatwaves could hinder sustainable development

Climate change-induced heatwaves in India can hinder or reverse the country’s progress in fulfilling the sustainable development goals (SDGs) due to the unprecedented burdens on public health, agriculture, and other socio-economic and cultural systems, according to a study published in the journal PLOS Climate. Researchers from the University of Cambridge, Ramit Debnath, Ronita Bardhan and Michelle L.

Bell said in the study that the heatwave in the Indian subcontinent has had critical impacts on a broad range of interconnected systems of the built environment, health, etc., including frequent and more extended power outages, an increase in dust and ozone levels leading to spikes in air pollution and accelerated melting of glacier snow in the northern regions. At the same time, economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is further hampering the response to the ongoing lethal heatwave.

A BQPrime report has also pointed out that the severe impact of climate change on India is reflected with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense. Despite the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting normal rainfall for the southwest monsoon season in 2023, climate scientists warn of the unpredictability of weather patterns due to climate change and the potentially devastating effects on farmers. India urgently needs to take proactive measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to changing weather patterns.

The BQPrime report added that in 2021, several regions in India experienced extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides. The floods resulted in the loss of many lives and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and property. In addition to the floods, several regions in India also experienced heatwaves in 2021, with temperatures reaching over 45 degrees Celsius in some areas. n 2022, India experienced an intense cold wave in January, with temperatures dropping to as low as -5 degrees Celsius in some parts of northern India. The cold wave caused several deaths and hardship for people living in poverty and those who are homeless. It is important to note that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. 

The first few weeks of February 2023 saw unexpected high temperatures ranging from 35 to 39 degrees Celsius in several parts of India, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, and coastal Karnataka. The IMD attributes the sudden increase in temperature and early withdrawal of winter to the absence of active western disturbances in February 2023, a dry spell over the plains, and subdued rainfall and snowfall over the hills

The Cambridge study titled ‘Lethal heatwaves are challenging India’s sustainable development’ states that the Indian government’s reliance on its Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), which may underestimate the impact of heatwaves on the country’s developmental efforts. An analytical evaluation of heat index (HI) with CVI shows that more than 90% of the country is at extremely cautious or dangerous levels of adversely impacting adaptive livelihood capacity, food grains yield, vector-borne disease spread and urban sustainability. The results also show by examining Delhi’s urban heat risk that heatwaves will critically hamper SDG progress at the urban scale.

The introduction to the above study says that April 2022 in India was the hottest in 122 years and followed the hottest March on record, reportedly killing at least 25 people. The cumulative heatwave-related mortality in India is over 24,000 deaths since 1992. Long-term projections indicate that Indian heatwaves could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human resting in the shade by 2050. Moreover, they will impact the labour productivity, economic growth, and quality of life of around 310 to 480 million people. Estimates show a 15% decrease in outdoor working capacity (i.e., working outdoors in high temperatures, e.g., construction worker) during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050.

The study cites a Lancet Report that projected heatwaves will intensify from these 2050 baseline estimates, affecting around 600 million Indians by 2100. The increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8%, and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and depressed living standards by 2050 and 2100, respectively. It also cites a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization that demonstrated the interconnections between lethal heatwaves and the SDGs, implying that global mean surface temperature rise will affect all the 17 SDGs.

The conclusion of the sturdy emphasizes the urgent need to improve extreme weather impact assessment by combining multiple layers of information within the existing climate vulnerability measurement frameworks that can account for the co-occurrence and collision of climate change events and non-climate structural SDG interventions.