Heatwave action plans in India found lacking

India has recorded its highest ever maximum temperature in February 2023. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement recently that the country is likely to experience heat waves between March and May, especially in the key wheat producing central and northern states. Average maximum temperature in February was 29.54 degrees Celsius, the highest since 1901, when the IMD started keeping weather records. The country received 68% lower rainfall than the normal in February, according to the weather office.

The IMD statement warned, “Enhanced probability of occurrence of heat wave during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining Northwest India...In March, the crucial month for the maturity of winter-sown crops, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except peninsular India.”

A Reuters report has added that India grows only one wheat crop in a year, with planting in October and November, and harvesting from March. A heat wave curtailed India’s wheat production in 2022 and forced the world’s second largest producer to ban exports. Government officials had warned last year that the South Asian country could see more frequent heat waves in future and that average temperatures, even during the monsoon season, have been rising over the last two decades. A study by the Centre for Policy Research has assessed India’s Heat Action Plans (HAPs) and finds that most HAPs in the country are not built for local context and have an oversimplified view of the hazard. Nearly all HAPs are poor at identifying and targeting vulnerable groups. The HAPs are underfunded, have weak legal foundations, insufficiently transparent, and has capacity building that is sectorally-targeted.

The Executive Summary of the study points out that extreme heat poses an unprecedented challenge to health and productivity in India. Heatwaves (prolonged periods of extreme heat) have increased in frequency in recent decades due to climate change. Landmark heatwaves (1998, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2022) have each led to large death tolls (according to government estimates) and extensive economic damage by reducing labour productivity and affecting water availability, agriculture, and energy systems.

The study warns that increased heat is already leading to increased heat-related deaths, heat stress, unbearable working conditions, and the wider spread of vector-borne diseases. By 2050, as many as 24 urban centres are projected to breach average summertime highs of at least 35°C, impacting economically weaker sections of the population disproportionately.

Governments across India at the state, district, and municipal levels have responded by creating heat action plans (HAPs). These HAPs are India’s primary policy response to economically damaging and life-threatening heatwaves and prescribe a variety of preparatory activities and post-heatwave response measures across government departments to decrease the impact of heatwaves. The HAPs carry the important task of defining the conditions under which heat becomes a hazard. The simplest way is to define a maximum threshold temperature at which there are significant mortality increases in a given biogeography. Apart from daily maximum temperature, concurrent hot days and hot nights, relative humidity and indoor temperature have significant implications for the experience of heatwave and heat-related stress, morbidity, and mortality.

In its assessment of Indian HAPs, researchers conducted what they call, to their knowledge, the first critical review of HAPs in India. They analysed 37 HAPs at the city (9), district (13) and state (15) levels across 18 states and identify several opportunities to strengthen them. The study also documents an encouragingly wide range of solutions (covering 62 distinct intervention types) prescribed across these HAPs, from promoting green roofs to state-wide school awareness programs. This, researchers say, lays out a consolidated toolbox of options for the Indian HAP designer and policymaker.

None of the HAPs reviewed explore policy integration across all listed interventions, according to the study. Many actions in agriculture, water, housing, infrastructure, and urban design could usefully be linked to existing policies to unlock capacity and finances. The study lays out an indicative list of national and state-schemes that could be tapped into to improve implementation prospects. In general, the researchers found that these HAPs prescribe a balanced mix of short and long-term actions (those that have an impact over more than one heat season) though it is unclear to what extent these actions are being implemented. Long-term transformational actions, such as climate-sensitive urban planning and changing cropping patterns, will likely come with higher implementation costs than immediate responses but could significantly reduce heat exposure and ease HAP implementation in the long run.