Volodymyr Zelensky

The Ukraine-Russia military confrontation has stretched longer than expected largely because the plan of Russian President Vladimir Putin to establish a protective presence in the eastern provinces of Ukraine for the Russian-speaking population there through a quick military operation went awry because of the determined move of US-NATO combine to pump in war material in the hands of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on a big scale. Russia might not have been deterred by the thought of Western sanctions as it had become familiar with them ever since it had annexed Crimea in 2014 following an armed revolt led by fundamentalists there who apparently enjoyed the US support.

Presently, the US-led West is keeping up aid and military support to Ukraine in a ‘proxy’ mode, believing that for Russia the war was inflicting costs that might become overbearing, that the world opinion was gravitating in favour of peaceful negotiation between the two warring sides and that certainly an escalation into a nuclear dimension would be totally unacceptable for the international community.

It is not going unnoticed by observers that Zelensky was taking to an aggressive jargon — all on the strength of US support though — setting demands like immediate withdrawal of Russian troops and talking of an ultimate Russian defeat. Coming from a leader in his precarious situation this was understandable. There is little doubt however, that the world favours an honourable peace pact between Russia and Ukraine. India became the voice of sanity as Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to both Putin and Zelensky — he was the world’s first leader to do that — and called for peace negotiations. His pithy reminder later that ‘this is not a time for war’ has swung international opinion in favour of a cessation of armed hostilities. India maintained a non-partisan approach to the conflict and abstained from US-sponsored anti-Russia resolutions at the UN. What is noteworthy, however, is that India retained a bilateral friendship with the US and the UK, as well as the leading European powers like France and Germany.

A situation has arisen where any initiative for bringing a halt to the Ukraine-Russia military conflict that has prolonged without creating any definite advantage for either side would receive a global endorsement. Ukraine is bearing the losses and yet seeking a further upgradation of the US armament support while President Putin might be aware that Russia was running into an image problem as a ‘big power’ that could not score a decisive ‘victory’ over a smaller neighbour. Putin can not be serious about injecting a ‘nuclear dimension’ in the name of using tactical missiles with that special capability.

India’s balanced approach has already been hailed by the world. It can be surmised that both the US and Russia would welcome any role India could play in bringing about a ceasefire — the US and India would not like Russia to be pushed into the Chinese camp deepening the revival of the Cold War. Any meaningful success of such an intervention would be a feather in India’s cap during the G20 Presidency. India’s NSA has been in touch with Russia and Ukraine at the highest levels and under his guidance, a track-2 team could quietly get into the act — an official engagement would be vulnerable to fault-finding in case the progress was not perfect. The team comprising a senior diplomat and a strategic expert chosen by NSCS, could possibly start consultations for peace and explore with the help of its counterparts from Russia and Ukraine, the possibility of evolving a framework of guidelines for negotiations. The fundamental point is that the negotiating team must consider concerns and sensitivities of both sides. When the Cold War ended with the success of the anti-Soviet armed campaign in Afghanistan that resulted in the dismemberment of the USSR and literally the demise of International Communism, the cause of global peace for the future, would have been served better if the newly freed East European countries and the Central Asian Republics were encouraged to have peaceful relations with the residual state of Russia.