Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine was not “unprovoked,” as Western governments, media outlets, and public opinion loudly proclaim, but was provoked long-term by unheeding eastwards expansion of Nato after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the 1990s, Russia was assured by the Nato-Russia Act on cooperation and security and the Nato-Ukraine Charter which, according to an ex-US diplomat involved in negotiations with Russia, recognised that Ukraine “would not join Nato (and) would not be in anyone’s ‘sphere of influence.’”

Unfortunately, key diplomatic figures like iconic US Cold War strategist George Kennan, ex- US Secretary of State James Baker, and former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev — who opposed Nato’s recruitment of Ukraine — faded from the scene. The ex-diplomat revealed during the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations they were “replaced by people who decided that, since the USSR had lost the Cold War, Russia could be ignored.”

Ignoring Moscow imperilled relations with the US as Nato’s expansion into Russia’s “near abroad” has always been seen by Russia as an existential political and security issue. Germany and France understand this and have opposed Ukraine’s Nato accession. They are aware that it is in their national interest to maintain and cultivate good relations with Russia instead of refusing to take its views into account and humiliating its leaders.

It is notable that US Democrat Senator Joe Biden was fully committed to Nato expansion from the 1990s and that, as president, he has backed Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s patience evaporated and he acted to end to Nato’s expansion.

This suited Biden, whose approval rating hovered between 37-41 per cent as he struggled to secure approval of his major legislation, lower inflation, and counter COVID. He was joined by equally challenged British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the ongoing campaign. Both had become captives of their approval ratings at the moment they were rapidly losing their grip on authority.

Biden’s Democrat party risks losing seats in the US House of Representatives and Senate in the November mid-term elections, rendering him a lame duck for the second half of this term in office and ensuring he will not get a second term.

Johnson was under pressure to resign from his own Conservative party colleagues over multiple parties at his residence and office during a strict COVID lockdown when Britons were banned from meeting family members and, even, visiting dying relatives in hospitals.

Democracy has not so hidden dangers. Biden and Johnson acted out of personal political rather than national interest. Although Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky initially called on them to refrain from provoking anti-Russian rhetoric, he has since courted right-wing nationalists and become a cheerleader for the hawks. This is not in Ukraine’s national interest.

Motivated by national interest, Germany, France and other European Nato members urged calm but have been compelled to capitulate to US/UK sanction policy while countries in this re- gion, Latin America, South and South-east Asia have wisely attempted to serve their national interests by adopting a more nuanced approach.

It is in no one’s national interest to allow punitive sanctions to destroy the wide range of relationships with Russia established after the Cold War ended. Russia enjoys personal, political, and commercial ties to countries the world over. It is estimated that at least 10 million Russian citizens live, study, and work abroad — around 40,000 of whom are in the UAE — and interact peacefully and profitably with citizens of host countries. It is in the political interests of all host countries and Russia that relations should be cordial.

On the political front, the countries of this region have found in recent years that the US is not a reliable partner. The priorities of Washington’s fickle, self-serving politicians may not take into account essential interests of regional governments. This has been particularly true when taking into account increasingly tense US relations with both Russia and China.

The presidency of Donald Trump demonstrated to the international community as a whole that that US democracy cannot be relied upon to yield administrations which can be trusted. This undermined US global credibility. During his first year in office, Biden has not restored trust while Trump threatens to run for re-election in 2024. As this is both a volatile and vulnerable region, governments have hedged their bets by cultivating relations with Russia and China.

While Russia has lucrative commercial relations with many countries, Europe is its main trading partner and is certain to be hit harder by sanctions than this region. Russia is the fifth largest trading partner of the European Union (EU) and represented nearly five per cent of the bloc’s total trade in 2020. The EU is Russia’s largest partner, with 36.5 per cent of imports coming from the EU and 37.9 of its exports going to the EU. The bloc imports 26 per cent of its oil and 40 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. The EU is the chief investor in Russia. In 2020, the total value of trade between the EU and Russia was $174.3 billion.

In the Arab region, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen and Egypt depend on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine; shortages could send bread prices sky high, threatening popular protests among civilians for whom bread is their daily staple food. Russia and Ukraine also account for 78 per cent of global sunflower oil exports and 60 per cent of consumption in this re- gion.

As the UAE is a key financial hub for Russia, the Emirates could be compelled to impose sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals, affecting local firms. Before COVID, nearly a million Russian tourists flocked to the Emirates annually for holidays. As Russia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have joined together to manage oil output and prices, Riyadh has made it clear to the West that co-operation with Russia on oil will continue.

Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer, after the US, and exports about five to six million barrels a day, about seven per cent of the global total. While this seems like a small amount, even the threat of an embargo on Russian exports has sent oil prices soaring.

While other oil exporters are set to benefit from higher prices regional oil consumers — Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen and Tunisia — are certain to suffer rising prices of fuel, goods and services and inflation.

It is ironic that Biden has not, so far, decided to ban the import of Russian oil to the US even though the amount of crude involved is 209,000 barrels a day and petroleum products 500,000 barrels a day. While this represents a small amount in daily US consumption of 19.69 million barrels a day, the absence of Russian oil would boost already high petrol prices for con- sumers.

The Russia-Nato confrontation is a disaster for this troubled region and the polarised world.

Hopefully, leaders in this region and elsewhere who have tried to distance them from the situation might be able to mediate between the sides before serious damage is inflicted on the global economy.