Iraq’s new parliament is set to meet on Sunday for its first session since a plurality of seats was won in the October 10th election by nationalist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Ahead of  the coming gathering, Sadr invited three rival Shia figures for lunch at his father’s home in the Shia holy city of Najaf. His aim was to heal breaches with key Iran-affiliated politicians who lost seats and persuade them to agree to a majority government appointed by him. So far there is no sign that he has succeeded.   

The oldest of the 329 legislators will chair the opening session, press for the election of a speaker among the Sunni candidates, and give Sadr’s 73-member faction, the largest in the assembly, 30 days to name a Shia prime minister who will be charged with forming a government within another 30 days. A new Kurdish president will have to be chosen in accordance with the sectarian system of governance installed by the US occupation, a system Iraqi protesters seek to overthrow in favour of a secular democratic model.

Although Sadr did not win a majority of seats, he argues that he has the right to form a government by enlisting the backing of certain parliamentary factions which will embrace his choice for prime minister.

Scion of a respected Shia clerical family, Sadr formed his own militia in 2003 and fought the US occupation. Consequently, he is regarded as a nationalist rather than a Iran-backed figure who returned to Baghdad after the fall of Saddam Hussein, as Iraqis put it, “on the backs of American tanks.” Sadr has a large following among Shia poor who have settled in slum neighbourhoods around the Iraqi capital and live in the main cities and towns of the south.

He portrays himself as a patriot who rejects all foreign interference in Iraqi domestic affairs, a reformer, and a campaigner against graft although ministers appointed by his party are no less corrupt than others. The Health Ministry, run and staffed by Sadrists is accused of corruption and held responsible for the disastrous state of the country’s hospitals and failed anti-covid efforts. 

It has taken nearly three months since polling day to schedule the opening of the national assembly because the election result was challenged by Fatah, the coalition comprised of parties affiliated with pro-Iranian Shia militias. Their representation fell from 48 in 2018 to just 17 while Sadr’s rose by 18 seats. Iraq’s supreme court threw out the legal complaints and certified the election on Dec.27. 

There were several reasons why the coalition tied to the pro-Iran militias lost. Many Iraqis believe these armed groups have too much power and serve the interests of Iran rather than Iraq. Anti-militia, anti-Iranian feeling runs strongest among young Shias who have taken part in mass protests which began in October 2019 against governmental mismanagement and corruption, unemployment, rising poverty and the lack of essential services in a country with vast oil resources.

Both the security forces and the militias cracked down hard on protesters, killing 600,disappearing and assassinating leading dissidents, and creating widespread resentment, especially in Baghdad and the restive cities of the south. Having played a decisive part in the ground war against Daesh, the Shia militias have also alienated Iraqis by taking over villages in the north and refusing to allow Sunnis, Christians and Yezidi Kurds to return to their homes. Displaced villagers remain in crowded camps and unable to rebuild their lives.

While militias which joined the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation) to fight Daesh are supposed to be merged with the regular armed forces and their fighters are paid army salaries, fighters remain loyal to their leaders and the militias are largely independent. Iraq’s revered Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani who urged Shias to form militias to fight Daesh in 2014 has since its defeat called for the demobilisation of these armed groups but both officers and foot-soldiers have rejected this call. Iraq›s outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has been unable to curb them while Iran tried and failed assert influence over them after last year›s attempt to kill Kadhimi using bomb laden drones. While affiliated with Iran, these militias have their own domestic agendas.

Survival and resisting change are at the top of their agendas. Their leaders are aware that they can only preserve the status quo if they stick together and oppose Sadr’s efforts to form a majority government of parties with a programme for change rather than a conflicted coalition too weak to effect reforms.  The Sadrists seek to form a majority government led by a reduced Shia alliance with the aim of returning Kadhimi to the premiership. Like Kadhimi, the Sadrists call for the dismantling of the militias. They also are determined to exclude lawmakers led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki from powersharing although they won 33 seats in parliament. Many Iraqis see pro-Iran Maliki, Washington›s initial choice for premier, as the figure who widened existing divisions in Iraq by persecuting Sunnis and failing to curb corruption. His rule led to Daesh conquests in the Sunni west and north and impoverishment of the populace due to melt-down of the Iraqi economy. 

Although an Iranian delegation determined to smooth relations between Sadr and the militias is due in Baghdad in coming days, he remains determined to have his way. He tweeted, “Neither Eastern, nor Western, a national majority government!”