A good choice for the Iran deal negotiations - GulfToday

A good choice for the Iran deal negotiations

Michael Jansen

The author, a well-respected observer of Middle East affairs, has three books on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Iran

Bagher Ghalibaf (right) and the head of the Iranian Atomic Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi (left), visit the Fordo nuclear power plant. AFP

Peacemakers have won the first skirmish in the Biden administration’s battle to re-enter the six-party 2015 deal with Iran for sanctions relief in exchange for limitations on its nuclear programme. Despite opposition from Congressional hawks and pro-Israel warriors, the man to be appointed lead the effort is Robert Malley, a former Obama era official who played a major role in the negotiations on the deal. Fortunately, Malley does not have to have Senate confirmation to take up the post.

Malley is a good choice. He has been involved in regional policy-making for decades. While in the Obama administration he opposed backing the exiled Syrian opposition movement, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood sponsored by Turkey, as well as sanctions against the Syrian government.

Malley justified his stand by saying, “We were part of what fuelled the conflict rather than stopped it.” Indeed. President Barack Obama’s misguided August 18th, 2011, statement that Syrian President Bashar Al Assad had lost legitimacy and should stand down provided impetus for proxy intervention, including by the US, and warfare. According to two well-informed Syrian sources, one a former senior member of the government, Assad was prepared to deliver reforms demanded by protesters until Obama spoke out. Malley seems to have understood that if Assad goes, the government would collapse, and Syria would fracture into a collection of fiefdoms run by warring warlords.

Having been long associated with the International Crisis Group which seeks to promote re- conciliation and prevent wars, Malley has considerable experience in conducting negotiations. Unlike other US policymakers, Malley’s background has enabled him to develop a deep understanding of Arab affairs. His father, Simon Malley, was an Egyptian Jewish journalist who worked as a foreign correspondent for Cairo daily al-Gomhuria, specialising in anti-colonial movements in Africa. He is credited with giving critical publicity to the Algerian freedom struggle against France. Robert Malley attended Yale University, became a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University, and earned a law degree from Harvard at the same time Obama was a student there. Malley has written extensively on developments in the Third World and on Palestine.

Malley joins key former Obama officials who have been recruited by President Joe Biden into his foreign policy team at senior levels. Antony Blinken is Secretary State, Jake Sullivan is National Security Adviser, and Wendy Sherman is Deputy Secretary of State. During 2013-15, Sherman headed State Department officials in negotiations with the Iranians.

Biden has pledged to re-join the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated by the Obama administration, with the aim of taming tensions in this region.

This would involve US compliance for Iranian compliance. Tehran has reacted positively to this proposition. However, the sides are currently jockeying for position. The Iranians argue that since Donald Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in May 2018 while they were in full compliance, Biden should make the first move. Iranians also point out that they remained in compliance for a year while other JCPOA signatories failed to find ways to get round Trump’s increasingly punitive sanctions.

Therefore, Iran argues the US should return to the JCPOA and lift all sanctions covered by the JCPOA. Biden’s officials hold that Iran should first reach compliance by ceasing to enrich uranium to a level over the 3.67 per cent permitted by the deal, exporting nuclear material which exceeds the amount allowed, and warehousing excluded late model centrifuges which speed enrichment.

The sides must eschew this apres-vous-monsieur routine and get down to business as soon as possible. Iran is threatening to halt some but not all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of its nuclear sites by February 21st if there is no progress on the US return to the JCPOA.

The second skirmish in this battle is over timing. Biden initially took the position that the US should return to JCPOA quickly. This would be wise as it would halt Iranian violations and prevent the build-up of opposition to re-entry. However, Blinken said Iran will have to return to compliance and the US will have to assess progress before returning to the JCPOA. This is a blinkered view and will lead only to delay and frustration in Tehran and other members of the Biden team who see US compliance to be an urgent matter. National Security Adviser Sullivan put forward a more rapid timeline than Blinken suggested. Sullivan is certain to have the support of Malley.

Sullivan argued that by re-joining the JCOPA the administration will put Iran’s nuclear programme “in a box,” thereby preventing Iran from taking further steps away from the deal. He said delay enables Iran to “move closer to having enough fissile material for a (nuclear) weapon.”

This is nonsense. Most of Iran’s stock of enriched uranium has been processed to the levels of 3.67-4.5 per cent for electricity plants although Iran has recently begun to enrich to 20 per cent to fuel a small research reactor the US donated to Iran in the 1960s under the Atoms for Peace Programme. All this classifies as low enrichment. Bombs require high level 90 per cent purification.

Sullivan did say, however, that once the JCOPA is restored, the US, its international and regional allies, could join together to take on Iran’s expanding ballistic missile programme. This makes sense. Sanctions not related to the JCPOA could be used for leverage.

Iran says it has no intention of building nuclear weapons. It did embark during the Shah’s time on weapons research but discontinued this effort in September 2003. Libya did the same that December. Neither country were close to producing bombs. It is significant that their renunciation of nuclear weapons coincided with George W. Bush’s occupation of Iraq which, he falsely claimed, was justified because Baghdad had a nuclear weapons programme as well as an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.

These were bold-faced lies and have been exposed as such. In the run-up to the US war on Iraq, IAEA sent a team to investigate the claim about nuclear weaponry. The IAEA report, written by US nuclear expert Robert Kelley, refuted this claim. I was told this before the war and reported this crucial information from Baghdad in early 2003. I assume the Bush administration was informed but, as Kelley predicted, chose to ignore the facts of the matter. Weapons of mass destruction were not found by UN inspectors before the war or by the US military after the invasion and occupation.

It’s about time people stop telling dangerous lies.

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Majority of US voters support the deal with Iran

US presidential candidate Joe Biden promised to return to the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. Instead, President Biden sticks to the dangerous and destructive policy dictated by Donald Trump who withdrew from the deal in 2018 and slapped 1,500 punitive sanctions on Iran.

Biden hesitates although 54 per cent of registered US voters support a deal while only 20 per cent oppose; among Biden’s Democrats the number is 70 per cent backers and six per cent opponents; among independents 50 per cent support and 30 per cent do not; and 41 per cent of Republicans are in favour against 35 who are not.

Since Biden’s own positive rating is currently a low 41 per cent against 56 per cent negative rating, it would seem it would behove him to re-enter the deal. The main obstacle is Tehran’s insistence that the US must lift Trump’s designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRG) as a “foreign terrorist organisation,” making the IRG the world’s sole national army to join a host of armed non-state actors.

The text, a somewhat amended version of the original document, has been ready for months and awaits finalisation. Why then is Biden procrastinating and prevaricating? He faces stiff opposition from domestic anti-Iran lobbyists and legislators and Israel where the government rejects the deal. In both countries military and intelligence experts are, however, in favour. They hold, correctly, that Tehran has made great strides in developing both nuclear expertise and output since Trump pulled out, prompting Iran to gradually reduce its adherence in retaliation.

Instead of being limited to 3.67 uranium enrichment Iran has 43 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium: this is a few steps away from the 90 per cent needed for a bomb. Instead of having a 300 kilogram stockpile of 3.67 enriched uranium, Iran has a stock 18 times larger of uranium enriched above the 3.67 per cent level permitted. Instead of carrying out enrichment with old, approved centrifuges, Iran has employed advanced centrifuges.

Instead of abiding by the stringent monitoring regime put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has been slipping surveillance. Until Iran began to breach the regulatory regime, it was the toughest on earth.

Nevertheless, Iran has pledged to revert to the deal once the US re-enters and to halt enrichment above 3.67 per cent, export all but 300 kilogrammes of the permitted 3.67 per cent of material in its stockpile, revert to old centrifuges which have been warehoused, and re-engage fully with the IAEA monitoring effort.

Opponents of the deal argue its “sunset clauses” will expire by 2031, thereby ending restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. This may be addressed in the new deal.

However, they also contend it fails to curb in Iran’s ballistic missile programme and sup- port for Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Yemeni Houthi rebels, Iraqi Shia militias and the Syrian government.

Since these issues are outside the purview of the 2015 deal, Iran rightly rejects including them in its successor. Tehran has also made it clear that they can be discussed directly with the US once Biden re-joins the deal and sanctions are lifted.

After months of trying to get the external issues incorporated into the nuclear deal, the Biden administration conceded that this is impossible.

On April 29th this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told lawmakers that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign had failed and “produced a more dangerous nuclear programme” while Iran stepped up involvement in regional affairs. These post-Ukraine war remarks suggested that the Biden administration was ready to return to the deal.

However, the administration continues to blow hot at one moment and cold another. Last week Washington may have blown up the deal. At the 35-member IAEA board of governors meeting in Vienna the US — along with acolytes Britain, France, and Germany — secured the adoption of a resolution critical of Iran over its inability or refusal to account for traces of nuclear material at three undeclared sites found by IAEA monitors in 2019 and 2020.

The resolution, which received 30 votes in favour — with Iran and Russia voting against and India, China and Libya abstaining — urges Iran to co-operate “without delay” with inspectors after IAEA director Rafael Grossi reported he had not received a “technically credible” explanation for the presence of particles.

Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi pointed out that uranium “contamination” was possible “in a country as vast as Iran.” He also suggested “human sabotage” by Israel which is blamed for repeated attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and assassinations of Iranian scientists.

Iranian officials are suspicious due to the fact that former Israeli Prime Minister Bin- yamin Netanyahu instigated visits by IAEA inspectors to one of the three contaminate sites at the village of Turquzabad near Tehran. IAEA monitors took soil samples and concluded that there were “traces of radioactive material” at the location which may have been used for storage as there were no signs of processing. How did Netanyahu know there were samples at this site?

Although the IAEA still has more than 40 cameras which will continue to operate at Iran’s enrichment facilities, Grossi stated Tehran’s action mounted to a “serious challenge.” He warned that in three or four weeks the agency would be unable to provide “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s activities. “This could be a fatal blow” to negotiations over the nuclear deal, he stated.

He also warned that Iran is “just a few weeks” away from having enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. However, Iran halted work on weaponisation in 2003 and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly stated that Iran will not manufacture nuclear weapons as they are prohibited by Islam.

Kelsey Davenport of the “independent” Washington-based Arms Control Association told the BBC that in ten days or less Iran could transform its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into the 90 per cent required for weapons. She said, however, that manufacturing bombs would require one or two years.

If Biden continues dithering the deal could die, further destabilising an already unstable region.

Michael Jansen, Political Correspondent

12 Jun 2022