Hundreds of members of heavily armed militia groups converged in Kentucky for a protest against police brutality. Reuters

Robert Moore, The Independent

There are two questions that are important on Tuesday night. As the counting begins, the first question is whether Americans will re-elect the man who has taken them on a dizzying, erratic and emotionally exhausting ride for the last four years.

We can expect that verdict to come relatively quickly, once Florida, North Carolina and Georgia declare their results, three states that are expected to publish vote tallies early. We will then have a clear indication whether the improbable, maverick Trump coalition that brought him to power has collapsed.

But it is the second question that is in many ways more interesting and altogether less easy to assess. Indeed, it may be weeks before we get a clear answer.

That question is best framed this way: has the Trump presidency brought his most alienated and angry supporters back into the political fold, or will they be so distraught at his defeat that they will reject the outcome and seek to sow chaos?

I saw the dangers for myself a few weeks ago in a startling encounter I had on the streets of Louisville, Kentucky. I was expecting to meet a few militiamen on the outskirts of the city. There were ongoing BLM demonstrations over the police killing of Breonna Taylor and some far-right groups were aiming to counter protest.

In fact, in a stunningly brazen display of power, white militias took over the entire city centre. Law enforcement had retreated. On 5 September, a major American city was briefly in the hands of a wild fringe. There were divergent groups there, including the Angry Vikings and Three Percenters, both of whom told me they were preparing for America’s descent into anarchy and for a breakdown of law and order if the left took power.

That was ominous enough. They possessed enough weaponry for a small war. They were wearing a mix of uniforms that made them look like ragged mercenaries.

But more remarkable was the deployment of a new Georgia-based black militia known by its initials, NFAC (Not F***ing Around Coalition).

At least 200 volunteers, all African-American and heavily armed, conducted a mock patrol through a Louisville neighbourhood. Their intention was clear: to issue a pre-election warning that they could match the tactics and intimidating power of any white militia.

What has allowed these militias to gain so much swagger is the unique combination of the febrile politics of this moment, the sense that they have an ally in the White House, and the public health emergency of COVID-19.

Many of these militias fear that a Biden-Harris administration will challenge the second amendment and confiscate their weapons. In fact, I met a Trump supporter in Wisconsin who told me, calmly and without any hesitation, that his gun rights were under imminent threat and that Biden was only good for “target practice”.

But the key event that has empowered these far-right militias is COVID-19. There is an almost universal belief among these groups that the federal authorities are exploiting the pandemic to achieve a massive expansion of government power. That’s why we have seen pro-gun groups descend on state capitals across the nation, most notably in Lansing, Richmond and Harrisburg.

How will these groups actually respond to a Biden victory? Paradoxically, many will welcome it. It provides the militiamen with a validation of their world view, and a vindication of their decision to stockpile weapons and supplies. Biden-Harris gives them purpose and new recruits.

If President Trump suffers a narrow defeat, and if he raises the spectre that fraud has been committed – as he surely will – then far-right militia groups may deploy into city centres, testing the tactics and nerves of local police departments. When that happens, NFAC is sure to follow.

The danger of a miscalculation is clear. One accidental discharge, one provocation, and it could turn deadly very quickly. It felt that way in Louisville in September. Only good fortune allowed the competing militias to head home. But I had the sense I was witnessing a rehearsal for post-election chaos.

So in the early hours of Wednesday morning, I won’t just be listening to Republican and Democratic Party officials deliver their verdicts. I will be watching the chatter on the far-right websites and online messaging platforms to see whether the militias are activating.

In 2000, our focus was on hanging chads. In 2016, it was on how Trump had breached the Democrats’ firewall in the Midwest. In 2020, my attention will be on whether America’s militiamen break cover and emerge from the shadows.