Of one-term presidents and 2020 ballot - GulfToday

Of one-term presidents and 2020 ballot

US-Presidents

John F Kennedy, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H W Bush. File

James Crump, The Independent

Washington: Only ten presidents have failed to win re-election and it is 28 years ago since the US has gone without a president failing to win a second term. Gulf Today political team connects the dots

The office of the US president was established in 1789, and in the 231 years since the first man was elected to the highest office in the country, 45 have people have held the title.

US Presidents are only allowed to sit for a maximum of two, four year terms, but although any gender can hold the position, every president so far has been a man. Of the 45 who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, when they have attempted to.

One US presidents, John F Kennedy was assassinated before he could run for re-election.

The longest period the US has experienced without a president failing to complete two terms, was between 1932 and 1976. The last president to have failed to win re-election was George H W Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

The US has gone 28 years without a president failing to win a second term as president Donald Trump faces Joe Biden in the presidential election, with the former attempting to win re-election.

The president’s who failed to win re-election:

John Adams: The first US president to fail to win re-election for a second term, was John Adams, who also served as the country’s first vice president. When the position was created in 1789, George Washington was the first to have the honour, and Adams served under him.

After Washington completed his two terms, Adams ran for the position with the Federalist party and took his place as president.

He came third in the next election, behind the two candidates the Republican party ran, with Thomas Jefferson eventually becoming the new US president.

John Quincy Adams: Another of the Adams family, John Quincy Adams, was unable to win re-election for a second term as US president.

During his time as president, there were big rifts in his party, the Democratic-Republican party, and it stopped him from making much progress. The party split after Adams failed to win re-election, with the two sides becoming the Democratic party and the Whig party.

Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison: Martin Van Buren was the next president to fail to win re-election in 1840, but Grover Cleveland proved that a lost election does not stop you from getting your second term.

Cleveland, a Democrat, was the 22nd and the 24th president of the United States, after he won both the 1884 and 1892 elections. He won the popular vote in 1888, but lost the election to the Republican Benjamin Harrison, who served for the next four years.

The 1888 election was tight and in 1892, Cleveland defeated Harrison, to win back the presidency and cause Harrison to become the fifth president to fail to win re-election.

William Howard Taft: He was the next US president to fail to win re-election, 20 years later in 1912.

Taft, a Republican, is the only person in US history to have held both the position of president and chief justice of the United States. He served as president from 1909 to 1913 and lost the 1912 presidential election to Woodrow Wilson.

Herbert Hoover: Elected as US president in 1928, he was faced with helping the country rebuild after the stock market crash of 1929. His presidency was overshadowed by the economic crash in 1929, and he spent most of his one term attempting to improve the country’s economy.

The US had not recovered by the time of the 1932 election, and he lost to Franklin D Roosevelt.

Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter: Gerald Ford not only failed to win re-election as the US president, but also never won a presidential election. Ford, a Republican, became the president after Richard Nixon resigned, following the Watergate scandal. He served from 1974 to 1977, when Jimmy Carter defeated him in the 1976 election.

Carter, a Democrat served as the US president from 1977 to 1981, but lost the 1980 election to Ronald Reagan. Despite the fact Gerald Ford never won a presidential election, Carter’s loss, meant that for the first time, two US presidents in succession failed to win re-election.

George H W Bush: He was the last president to fail to win re-election, when he was beaten by Democrat, Bill Clinton, in the 1992 election.

In 2000, his son, George W Bush was elected as president and completed two full terms, before Barack Obama took over as US president.

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Majority of US voters support the deal with Iran

US presidential candidate Joe Biden promised to return to the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. Instead, President Biden sticks to the dangerous and destructive policy dictated by Donald Trump who withdrew from the deal in 2018 and slapped 1,500 punitive sanctions on Iran.

Biden hesitates although 54 per cent of registered US voters support a deal while only 20 per cent oppose; among Biden’s Democrats the number is 70 per cent backers and six per cent opponents; among independents 50 per cent support and 30 per cent do not; and 41 per cent of Republicans are in favour against 35 who are not.

Since Biden’s own positive rating is currently a low 41 per cent against 56 per cent negative rating, it would seem it would behove him to re-enter the deal. The main obstacle is Tehran’s insistence that the US must lift Trump’s designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRG) as a “foreign terrorist organisation,” making the IRG the world’s sole national army to join a host of armed non-state actors.

The text, a somewhat amended version of the original document, has been ready for months and awaits finalisation. Why then is Biden procrastinating and prevaricating? He faces stiff opposition from domestic anti-Iran lobbyists and legislators and Israel where the government rejects the deal. In both countries military and intelligence experts are, however, in favour. They hold, correctly, that Tehran has made great strides in developing both nuclear expertise and output since Trump pulled out, prompting Iran to gradually reduce its adherence in retaliation.

Instead of being limited to 3.67 uranium enrichment Iran has 43 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium: this is a few steps away from the 90 per cent needed for a bomb. Instead of having a 300 kilogram stockpile of 3.67 enriched uranium, Iran has a stock 18 times larger of uranium enriched above the 3.67 per cent level permitted. Instead of carrying out enrichment with old, approved centrifuges, Iran has employed advanced centrifuges.

Instead of abiding by the stringent monitoring regime put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has been slipping surveillance. Until Iran began to breach the regulatory regime, it was the toughest on earth.

Nevertheless, Iran has pledged to revert to the deal once the US re-enters and to halt enrichment above 3.67 per cent, export all but 300 kilogrammes of the permitted 3.67 per cent of material in its stockpile, revert to old centrifuges which have been warehoused, and re-engage fully with the IAEA monitoring effort.

Opponents of the deal argue its “sunset clauses” will expire by 2031, thereby ending restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. This may be addressed in the new deal.

However, they also contend it fails to curb in Iran’s ballistic missile programme and sup- port for Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Yemeni Houthi rebels, Iraqi Shia militias and the Syrian government.

Since these issues are outside the purview of the 2015 deal, Iran rightly rejects including them in its successor. Tehran has also made it clear that they can be discussed directly with the US once Biden re-joins the deal and sanctions are lifted.

After months of trying to get the external issues incorporated into the nuclear deal, the Biden administration conceded that this is impossible.

On April 29th this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told lawmakers that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign had failed and “produced a more dangerous nuclear programme” while Iran stepped up involvement in regional affairs. These post-Ukraine war remarks suggested that the Biden administration was ready to return to the deal.

However, the administration continues to blow hot at one moment and cold another. Last week Washington may have blown up the deal. At the 35-member IAEA board of governors meeting in Vienna the US — along with acolytes Britain, France, and Germany — secured the adoption of a resolution critical of Iran over its inability or refusal to account for traces of nuclear material at three undeclared sites found by IAEA monitors in 2019 and 2020.

The resolution, which received 30 votes in favour — with Iran and Russia voting against and India, China and Libya abstaining — urges Iran to co-operate “without delay” with inspectors after IAEA director Rafael Grossi reported he had not received a “technically credible” explanation for the presence of particles.

Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi pointed out that uranium “contamination” was possible “in a country as vast as Iran.” He also suggested “human sabotage” by Israel which is blamed for repeated attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and assassinations of Iranian scientists.

Iranian officials are suspicious due to the fact that former Israeli Prime Minister Bin- yamin Netanyahu instigated visits by IAEA inspectors to one of the three contaminate sites at the village of Turquzabad near Tehran. IAEA monitors took soil samples and concluded that there were “traces of radioactive material” at the location which may have been used for storage as there were no signs of processing. How did Netanyahu know there were samples at this site?

Although the IAEA still has more than 40 cameras which will continue to operate at Iran’s enrichment facilities, Grossi stated Tehran’s action mounted to a “serious challenge.” He warned that in three or four weeks the agency would be unable to provide “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s activities. “This could be a fatal blow” to negotiations over the nuclear deal, he stated.

He also warned that Iran is “just a few weeks” away from having enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. However, Iran halted work on weaponisation in 2003 and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly stated that Iran will not manufacture nuclear weapons as they are prohibited by Islam.

Kelsey Davenport of the “independent” Washington-based Arms Control Association told the BBC that in ten days or less Iran could transform its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into the 90 per cent required for weapons. She said, however, that manufacturing bombs would require one or two years.

If Biden continues dithering the deal could die, further destabilising an already unstable region.

Michael Jansen, Political Correspondent

12 Jun 2022