High cyclone frequency puts IMD in a bind

Before the pandemic hit, sudden natural weather disasters had become the norm in India, as elsewhere in the world, in the past few years. Even as the lockdown has given the environment a temporary boost, experts are debating on how it is going to affect the weather patterns. However, it is also extremely essential to continue to assess climatic patterns and keep an eye on regular forecasts.

Even as we keep track of these crucial issues, other related matters too have to be looked into – cyclone names for example! In 2019, India witnessed eight cyclonic storms as against the normal of five. This is a record as it was only in 1976 that more than seven cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean.

This has almost exhausted a list of 64 cyclone names proposed back in September 2004 by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). After Titli, Gaja, Fani, Vayu, and Bulbul, we have only one name left –Amphan.

Short, distinct names are normally used for tropical cyclones. The IMD has released a new list of 169 cyclone names recently. This list was adopted by the World Meteorological Department (WMO) panel in April 2019 and will be used to name tropical cyclones forming over the north Indian Ocean after Amphan. The North Indian Ocean includes the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

The new list comprises 13 names of cyclones each for the 13 member countries, totalling 169. The names for India include Gati, Tej, Murasu, Aag, Vyom, Jhar, Probaho, Neer, Prabhanjan, Ghurni, Ambud, Jaladhi and Vega, as reported by the Weather Channel. After the decision to prepare a new list was taken in September 2018, it took nearly one and a half years for the deliberations among the 13 member countries and the final consensus on names.

The WMO maintains rotating lists of names which are appropriate for each Tropical Cyclone basin. If a cyclone is particularly deadly or costly, then its name is retired and replaced by another one. 

Out of several criteria for naming cyclones, some very important ones are: names should be politically and culturally neutral, should not be rude and cruel and should be short and easy to pronounce. The maximum permissible length of the cyclone names is eight letters.

As detailed by the WMO, tropical cyclones can last for a week or more; therefore there can be more than one cyclone at a time. Weather forecasters give each tropical cyclone a name to avoid confusion. Each year, tropical cyclones receive names in alphabetical order. Women and men’s names are alternated. The name list is proposed by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Members of a specific region, and approved by the respective tropical cyclone regional bodies at their annual/bi-annual sessions. Nations in the western North Pacific began using a new system for naming tropical cyclones in 2000.

The historical background of this procedure is explained by the WMO. The practice of naming storms (tropical cyclones) began years ago in order to help in the quick identification of storms in warning messages because names are presumed to be far easier to remember than numbers and technical terms. Appending names to storms makes it easier for the media to report on tropical cyclones, heightens interest in warnings and increases community preparedness.

In the beginning, storms were named arbitrarily. An Atlantic storm that ripped off the mast of a boat named Antje became known as Antje’s hurricane. Then the mid-1900s saw the start of the practice of using feminine names for storms.

In the pursuit of a more organised and efficient naming system, meteorologists later decided to identify storms using names from a list arranged alphabetically. Thus, a storm with a name which begins with A, like Anne, would be the first storm to occur in the year. Before the end of the 1900s, forecasters started using male names for those forming in the Southern Hemisphere.

The only time that there is a change in a list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name would be inappropriate. If that occurs, then the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. Some examples include Mangkhut (Philippines, 2018), Irma and Maria (Caribbean, 2017), Haiyan (Philippines, 2013), Sandy (USA, 2012), Katrina (USA, 2005), Mitch (Honduras, 1998) and Tracy (Darwin, 1974).