The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) prediction that some 1.6 billion people employed in the informal economy — or nearly half the global workforce — could see their livelihoods destroyed due to the continued decline in working hours brought on by lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19 highlights the grim scenario prevailing across the globe on the employment front.

According to the ILO Monitor third edition: COVID-19 and the World of Work, the drop in working hours in the current (second) quarter of 2020 is expected to be significantly worse than previously estimated.

Compared to pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019), a 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week).

The previous estimate was for a 6.7 per cent drop, equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. This is due to the prolongation and extension of lockdown measures.

Regionally, the situation has worsened for all major regional groups.

Estimates suggest a 12.4 per cent loss of working hours in Q2 for the Americas (compared to pre-crisis levels) and 11.8 per cent for Europe and Central Asia. The estimates for the rest of the regional groups follow closely and are all above 9.5 per cent.

The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income of informal workers globally.

This translates into a drop of 81 per cent in Africa and the Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia.

What is frightening is without alternative income sources, these workers and their families will have no means to survive.

As per ILO, worldwide, more than 436 million enterprises face high risks of serious disruption. These enterprises are operating in the hardest-hit economic sectors, including some 232 million in wholesale and retail, 111 million in manufacturing, 51 million in accommodation and food services, and 42 million in real estate and other business activities.

The situation for women has been particularly challenging. Women globally make up over 70 per cent of workers in health, including those working in care institutions. They are on the front line of the fight against COVID-19 and these past few weeks have been the worst they have ever seen.

As a result of the pandemic they are facing a double burden: longer shifts at work and additional care work at home.

What is essential is urgent, targeted and flexible measures to support workers and businesses, particularly smaller enterprises, those in the informal economy and others who are vulnerable.

Global solidarity and swift measures are the need of the hour.

Measures for economic reactivation should follow a job-rich approach, backed by stronger employment policies and institutions, better-resourced and comprehensive social protection systems.

International co-ordination on stimulus packages and debt relief measures will also be critical to making recovery effective and sustainable.

As the pandemic and the jobs crisis evolve, the need to protect the most vulnerable becomes even more urgent.

In ILO Director-General Guy Ryder’s words: “For millions of workers, no income means no food, no security and no future. Millions of businesses around the world are barely breathing. They have no savings or access to credit. These are the real faces of the world of work. If we don’t help them now, these enterprises will simply perish.”