Second Scottish referendum ‘must be legal and legitimate’
Michael Jansen
The author, a well-respected observer of Middle East affairs, has three books on the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Nicola Sturgeon. File
While arguing that she wants a referendum in 2020, she admitted this may not yet be attainable. She insisted that a second referendum “must be legal and legitimate” and conducted once the independence camp is assured of victory. Recent polls show that independence is now favoured by 51 per cent of Scots against 49 per cent who oppose.
Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Sturgeon is not prepared to endure a second defeat in an independence referendum. In 2014, 55.3 per cent of Scottish voters chose to remain in Britain against 44.7 per cent who sought independence. The turnout was 84 per cent, the largest in any election or referendum ever held in Britain.
She contended that there is a “cast iron democratic mandate” for a new referendum due to Britain’s EU exit because the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the British parliament in the December 2019 election, and 62 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the European bloc in the 2016 referendum while only 38 per cent backed leaving. Scotland’s two major cities voted to remain by overwhelming majorities: Glasgow by 66.6 per cent and Edinburgh by 74.4 per cent. Scotland was not alone. Northern Ireland voted to remain 55.78 to 44.22 per cent and Greater London 59.93 to 40.07 per cent.
While it has not yet opted to secede from the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland could demand independence if problems with the border with the Irish Republic are not resolved to the satisfaction of Belfast and Dublin and violence resumes between Irish nationalists and supporters of the union with Britain.
Although Sturgeon calls for patience among her impatient followers, she is well aware that the fate of Scotland depends on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He has the legal right to bar another Scottish vote on independence. Therefore, the SNP will have to make a strong case for divorce and take this case to the “British people,” the EU and the international community.
Meanwhile, Johnson will have to make prompt delivery on Brexit promises he made to the public now that Britain has formally left the EU. He has pledged to invest in primary and secondary schools, recruit an additional 20,000 police to boost security, improve the national health system, fix social welfare, upgrade the internet and build roads. However, Johnson is not reliable. During the campaign ahead of the December election, he reiterated promises he has no intention of keeping. While mayor of London, he made promises on the expansion of Heathrow airport, the number of homeless in the streets and tax cuts, and broke every one.
While tackling his “national revival” agenda, he will have to honour his Brexit pledge to reach by the end of the year existential accommodations with a hardnosed EU, Britain’s largest trading power, as well as bilateral deals with the US and the rest of the world. Although the EU regrets Brexit, the bloc is not prepared to grant Britain the same treatment accorded to the other 27 member states, particularly on the need to meet EU standards. For example, the EU will not permit Britain, which intends to prioritise trade relations with the US, to introduce into the bloc US hormone and antibiotic-treated meat and poultry. No “chicken washed in chlorine,” has become a mantra with EU officials determined to preserve the purity of foods on sale in the bloc.
Sturgeon is well aware that Johnson will be unable to deliver on his unrealistic promises. She will bide her time until he falters, until those who voted for United Kingdom independence understand that they have been misled and cheated.
Born in 1970, Sturgeon has time to build her case. A lawyer trained at the University of Glasgow, she was elected in 1999 on the SNP ticket to the Scottish Parliament. She led her party between 2004-07 and became deputy first minister in 2007 under First Minister Alex Salmond. Following the defeat of the 2014 referendum, he resigned and she took charge of both the party and the government.
It is significant that the SNP, under Salmond and Sturgeon, has dominated Scottish politics since 2007, while the initial five first ministers representing the Labour party were in office from only 1999-2007. This indicates that Scottish nationalism is on the rise and that Labour has lost its Scottish constituency. The SNP began this trend by narrowly winning the May 2007 poll, besting Labour as Labour’s Gordon Brown became Britain’s prime minister. In the 2011 election, the SNP swept into power on its own with more than twice as many seats as Labour.
The SNP, founded in 1934, supports independence for Scotland within the EU. As the party with the third largest membership in the United Kingdom after the Conservative and Labour parties, the SNP has the majority of Scottish seats in both the British and Scottish parliaments. The party’s current ideology is based on the European social democratic model which calls for affordable housing, health care for all and government-subsidised higher education. Therefore, in ideology and objectives the SNP is at odds with Johnson’s Conservatives.
Johnson has promised social welfare policies which would uplift Britons living in deprived areas, but he will have to extend these to Scotland if he is to slow down the momentum for “Sexit,” Scotland’s exit from the United Kingdom. If he fails, popular pressure from “Sexit” supporters could rise to a high enough level to compel him to agree to a second referendum which the SNP would win.
