El Nino activity to impact UAE weather until 2027 with increased rainfall surpassing seasonal averages

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has reported that indicators in the Pacific Ocean suggest a significant El Niño event, projected to last until February 2027, affecting the UAE through April 2027.

The NCM explained that climate models consistently predict the phenomenon will reach its peak in October and November 2026, with a temperature anomaly around 3.0°C, indicating a very strong El Niño.

Over the last month, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been above average in the central and eastern areas.

It is expected that both temperatures and rainfall will exceed average levels, potentially leading to intense weather events, particularly towards the end of this period if atmospheric conditions are conducive.