Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years: Report
- Last updated: May 28, 2026 | 18:19
Average global temperatures are forecast to reach near-record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperatures expected to warm faster than other regions, a report by the UN weather agency and the UK's Met Office said on Thursday.
The annual report, which gives regional predictions for temperatures and rain, predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments promised to try to prevent the average global temperature rise from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - above which severe climate events were seen growing in intensity.
The report said it is very likely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicts there will be one year between 2026 and 2030 when average global temperatures will exceed the warmest year on record, 2024, when they surpassed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era for the first time.
Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than 3-1/2 times the global average, reaching around 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, according to the report.
Arctic sea-ice is expected to melt in the month of March over the next half decade in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Arctic warming could also disrupt weather systems and prompt more severe weather events, especially in the northern parts of the world.
WAM