UAE to experience coldest winter period from Jan.10-22

Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences (AUASS), confirmed that the middle of January will be the coldest part of winter in the region.

This coincides with the period known as “Dur Al Sittin,” which is famous in folk culture for its extreme cold.

It has even been described as the cold of a knife.

He explained that during this period, very cold mornings are common, particularly in desert areas, where temperatures drop below five degrees Celsius in the early morning hours.

He noted that the period from Jan.10 to 22 typically experiences the lowest temperatures in the region.

This period coincides with the astronomical alignment of the Pleiades star at dinnertime. In Arab culture, this has historically been associated with severe cold.

Al Jarwan added that the first full moon of 2026 is known as the “Wolf Moon,” and that it will appear as a supermoon because it will coincide with the moon being at its closest point to Earth in its monthly orbit.

He explained that this name originates from the agricultural calendar in North America and Western Europe, where it is associated with increased wolf howling during periods of extreme cold and food scarcity.

Other names for this moon include the “Harvest Moon” and the “Hunter’s Moon.”

Climate data indicates that January rainfall is typically around the normal average, ranging from 12 to 18 mm over the course of the month, with an average of six to eight rainy days.

Al Jarwan emphasised that accurate weather forecasts can only be relied upon for a period of up to five days and that there are currently no indications that the region will be affected by a low-pressure system in the near future.

Regarding the accuracy of forecasts, he explained that the atmosphere is a complex, dynamic system in which small changes to weather elements can lead to significant changes further down the line — a phenomenon known as the “butterfly effect.”

He added that forecasting models rely on mathematical simulations and observational data from ground stations, satellites, radars, and weather balloons. However, there are challenges related to uneven data coverage in some areas.

He pointed out that the reliability of weather forecasts decreases as the forecast period lengthens. For example, the reliability of a ten-day forecast is less than 50%, whereas a five-day forecast is about 75%, and a two-day forecast exceeds 90% in reliable models.

Al Jarwan stressed the importance of monitoring weather forecasts, given their role in protecting the community from natural hazards, reducing losses, ensuring safe transportation and supporting public health in the face of cold waves, dust storms and rapid weather changes.