Afghan border closure brings down terrorist attacks in Pakistan, says CRSS report

Pakistan has recorded a significant drop in cross-border terrorist attacks and violence-linked fatalities after it closed down the border to Afghanistan on Oct.11, the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) said in a report.

Terrorist attacks went down by almost 17 per cent in December, preceded by 9% decline in November. Terrorist violence-linked fatalities among civilians and security officials also fell in the last quarter of 2025, by nearly 4 per cent and 19 per cent each in November and December, the data collected by the CRSS as part of its annual security report 2025 said.

With an almost 34 per cent surge in overall violence, the year 2025 went by as the most violent year for Pakistan in a decade, says the report.

The country has suffered a sustained escalation in violence for five consecutive years since 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan; with almost 38 per cent in 2021, over 15 per cent in 2022, 56 per cent in 2023, nearly 67 per cent in 2024, and 34 per cent in 2025.

The comparative data for 2024 and 2025 reveals a sharp escalation in terrorism and counter-terrorism linked violence nationwide, with fatalities rising from 2,555 in 2024 to 3,417 in 2025, marking an increase of 862 deaths, or a roughly 34 per cent year-on-year surge in violence.

The most significant surge in violence was recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the fatalities rose from 1,620 in 2024 to 2,331 in 2025, an absolute increase of 711 deaths, accounting for over 82 per cent of the net national rise and marking almost a 44 per cent year-on-year surge in violence in the province.

Balochistan also had an upward trend, with fatalities increasing from 787 to 956; an additional 169 deaths, which are nearly 22 per cent higher than the previous year’s figures.

Violence remained heavily concentrated in the country’s northwestern KP and southwestern Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 96 per cent of all fatalities and almost 93 per cent of violent incidents recorded during the entire 2025.

KP was the worst-hit region, suffering over 68 per cent (2,331) of the total violence-linked fatalities, and around 63 per cent (795) of the incidents of violence, followed by Balochistan, accounting for 28 per cent (956) of the fatalities and over 30 per cent (386) of the incidents of violence.

In contrast, Punjab and Sindh experienced comparatively lower levels of violence. The former recorded 25 incidents of violence resulting in 40 fatalities and 24 injuries, representing just 1.15 per cent of total casualties, while the latter saw 51 incidents causing 56 fatalities and 40 injuries; 1.73 per cent of the total.

In Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the Islamabad Capital Territory though incidents numbers remained minimal, the injury figures were relatively high, with the former recording 103 injuries, and the latter registering 38, from just five incidents at each location.

Gilgit-Baltistan remained the least affected region. Compared to last year, though small in absolute numbers, the region recorded a four-fold increase from one to four fatalities.

Abdullah Khan, managing director of PICSS, said the high death toll was driven in part by a rise in suicide bombings and the militants’ use of US military equipment left behind during the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, which later reached the Pakistani Taliban, and other groups, increasing their operational capabilities.

The 2025 fatalities also included 667 security personnel, a 26% increase from the previous year, "the highest annual figure since 2011," Khan said.

He also said 580 civilian deaths were recorded, "the highest annual toll since 2015.” In addition, 28 members of pro-government peace committees were reported dead

The Islamabad-based PICSS recorded at least 1,066 militant attacks in 2025 and suicide attacks rose 53%, with 26 incidents reported. It also said security forces arrested about 500 militants during intelligence-based operations last year, up from 272 in 2024, he said.

Khan said multiple militant groups, including the TTP, claimed most attacks in 2025.

PICSS released its report weeks after Pakistan’s military spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif Chaudhry, said security forces carried out 67,023 intelligence-based operations in 2025, killing 1,873 militants, who included 136 Afghan nationals.