Myanmar to hold first phase of general election on Dec. 28

Myanmar’s junta said on Monday that long-promised elections will start on December 28, despite a raging civil war that has put much of the country out of its control, and international monitors slating the poll as a charade.

Myanmar has been consumed by conflict since the military deposed the government of democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, making unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud.

Swathes of the country are beyond military control -- administered by a myriad of pro-democracy guerrillas and powerful ethnic armed organisations which have pledged to block polls in their enclaves.

Analysts say the election will likely see junta chief Min Aung Hlaing maintain his power over any new government -- either as president, military leader or some new office where he will consolidate control.

“I think this election is only being held to give power to military dictators until the world ends,” said one Myanmar citizen in the western state of Rakhine.

“I don’t think the election will hold any significance for the people,” added the 63-year-old, declining to be named for security reasons.

Myanmar’s civil war has killed thousands, left more than half the nation in poverty, and more than 3.5 million people living displaced.

The junta has touted elections as a way to end the conflict and offered cash rewards to opposition fighters willing to lay down their arms ahead of the vote.

“We want stability back in the country,” said one displaced woman in the central city of Mandalay. “If the country will be made more stable and peaceful because of the election, we want to participate.”

Suu Kyi remains jailed and many opposition lawmakers ousted by the coup are boycotting the polls, which a UN expert has branded a “fraud” designed to rebrand continuing military rule.

“These elections are not a process of ending the political crisis in Myanmar, but placing a fake democratic veneer over continued repressive rule,” said independent analyst David Scott Mathieson.

“All the supposedly credible moving parts” including party registrations, updated election laws and constituency announcements “are all simply special effects in an elaborate but squalid sham”, he added.

Myanmar’s Union Election Commission said in a statement that the first votes will be cast on December 28 and “dates for the subsequent phases will be announced later”.

Conflict monitors predict the period will see an uptick in violence and unrest as the military seeks to expand the scope of the vote and opposition groups lash back.

Last month, the junta introduced new laws dictating prison sentences of up to 10 years for critics or protesters of the election.

The legislation also outlawed damaging ballot papers and polling stations, as well as the intimidation or harm of voters, candidates and election workers -- with a maximum punishment of 20 years in prison.

Min Aung Hlaing is currently ruling Myanmar as acting president, also serving as the chief of the armed forces which has ruled the country for most of its post-independence history.

Analysts predict the vote may split the factions opposing him, as they weigh whether to participate.

Myanmar’s disparate opposition fighters initially struggled to make headway against the junta, before a combined offensive starting in late 2023 won a series of nationwide territorial victories.

In response the junta has waged a withering campaign of air strikes and enacted conscription, swelling its ranks with thousands of new troops and clawing back some key settlements in recent weeks.

A census held last year as preparation for the election estimated it failed to collect data from 19 million of the country’s 51 million people, according to provisional findings.

The results cited “significant security constraints” as one reason for the shortfall -- giving a sign of how limited the reach of the election may be amid the civil war.

On the other hand, people in western Myanmar have been driven to scavenging for bamboo shoots, as humanitarian workers warn a wartime blockade and aid cutbacks led by Washington have caused hunger cases to surge.

Agencies