Boeing keeps 20-year forecast for new aircraft demand steady

Boeing maintained its forecast for strong global demand for new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, ​according to the US ⁠planemaker’s market projection released in England on Saturday, ahead of the Farnborough ‌Airshow.

The US planemaker’s forecast was almost ‌identical to its 2025 outlook. Boeing forecast industry-wide global deliveries of 43,625 new jetliners and freighters around the world from 2026 through 2045 − 33,545 single-aisle jets, 7,715 widebody aircraft, 930 factory-built freighters and 1,435 regional jets.

This month, Boeing’s European ‌rival Airbus trimmed its projection by 1% to 42,060 new aircraft, citing the Iran war and trade tensions.

Boeing ⁠expects air passenger traffic growth of about 2.3% this year, less than half of last year’s growth rate of 5.3%. It expects growth to rebound to 6%-7% in 2027 and 5%-6% in 2028.

“Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028,” Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulst told reporters. He described the current slowdown as different from the multi-year demand ​shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Boeing expects passenger traffic to grow 4% annually over the ‌next 20 years, with cargo traffic rising 3.7%, the jet fleet expanding 3% and the world economy growing 2.5%.

Demand for new aircraft continues to grow faster than planemakers can deliver new jets. Passenger traffic last ⁠year had rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, but deliveries of new jets remained below the 2018 output, Hulst said.

The company estimates an undersupply of close to 2,000 aircraft entering 2026, with the single-aisle shortfall unlikely to clear until around the end ​of the ‌decade and widebody shortages likely to persist into the early 2030s.

The outlook assumes a roughly even ‌split between replacement and growth demand. Boeing projects 21,475 deliveries will replace older jets and 22,150 will support fleet expansion.

The global fleet is expected to rise from about 28,000 aircraft in 2025 to 50,000 by 2045, with new-generation aircraft ‌growing from 32% of ‌the fleet to 92%.

China is expected to account ⁠for 21% of deliveries, followed by Eurasia at 20%, North America and South/Southeast Asia ‌at 19% each, the Middle East and Africa at 10%, Latin America at 6% and Oceania/Northeast Asia at 5%.

Boeing’s forecast reflects a market recovering from repeated shocks but still constrained ⁠by manufacturing capacity and supply-chain fragility. Boeing also faces certification delays on key programs including the 737 ​MAX 7 and 10 and the 777-9.

Hulst said the long-term demand picture remains supported by trade, tourism, migration and airline network expansion. “The reason why we travel and the reason ⁠why goods move isn’t changing,” he said.

Separately, the Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday ‌it will allow Boeing to issue ‌airworthiness certificates for all 737 MAX and 787 airplanes starting next week, a significant milestone for the US planemaker as it ramps up production.

The FAA said the “decision follows months of thorough data ‌and safety review demonstrating consistent production quality and reflects the FAA’s confidence in Boeing’s ability to ⁠issue airworthiness certificates under FAA oversight.” The decision was first reported by Reuters. The FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to approve individual MAX planes in 2019 after a second fatal MAX crash in Ethiopia, and for Boeing 787 airplanes in 2022 due to production quality issues.

In September, the FAA allowed Boeing to resume issuing airworthiness certificates for 737 MAX and 787 airplanes on alternating weeks.

“During the past ​eight months, the FAA has seen comparable production quality findings when Boeing issued ‌airworthiness certificates and when the FAA issued them,” the agency said, adding it will continue inspections, audits, and monitoring of Boeing’s production system. Boeing said it will continue “to work under the oversight of the FAA ⁠in building safe, high-quality commercial airplanes that comply with all airworthiness certification requirements.” In an interview this week, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford told Reuters Boeing is “doing much better.” He added the goal has been “not to ​soften our ‌regulatory compliance requirements at Boeing but to be more collaborative in the decision-making process.” The decision comes ‌as Boeing seeks to increase 737 MAX production. The FAA last year raised Boeing’s monthly production cap to 42 aircraft, ending a 38-plane limit imposed after a mid-air panel blowout aboard a new Alaska Airlines ‌MAX 9 in January ‌2024.

In May, Bedford said the agency backed ⁠Boeing’s decision to raise production to 47 aircraft a month and expected the ‌company to seek further increases.

Bedford also said he expects the 737 MAX 7 to be certified this summer and the larger MAX 10 to be approved ⁠before the end of the year.

The MAX 7 is a shortened version of the ​two types already in service, the MAX 8 and 9, which have accumulated tens of thousands of flight hours.

The US planemaker has also faced delays in certifying ⁠its widebody 777X jet.

Reuters