IMF slashes 2026 global growth forecast on Middle East conflict

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth projection on Tuesday, warning that the world economy could be “thrown off course” by war in the Middle East − as the conflict roils commodity markets and sparks higher prices.

The global economy is set to grow by 3.1 per cent this year, said the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook report, released during its spring meetings in Washington.

This is down from 3.3 per cent forecast in January before hostilities erupted February 28 with US-Israeli strikes against Iran that prompted Tehran’s retaliation and sparked a broader conflict in the region.

“We were planning to upgrade growth for 2026 to 3.4 percent” if not for the war, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP.

Prices of oil, gas and fertilizers have surged, as Iran virtually blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping waterway. US President Donald Trump has also ordered a naval blockade around Iran’s ports.

The IMF expects higher inflation this year at 4.4 per cent, 0.6 percentage points above its January forecast.

Still the impact of oil shortages could be worse.

Compared to the oil shocks of the 1970s, “the global economy is much less oil dependent now than it was back then,” Gourinchas said at a Tuesday press conference.

“There are many other sources of energy, renewables, nuclear and other things, and also the global economy has become much more efficient in terms of how much it needs oil to produce GDP,” he said. “That’s a source of resilience.” After this the “disinflation path” of recent years should reassert itself, Gourinchas said.

But these projections assume a relatively short-lived conflict with temporary energy market disruptions.

In more adverse scenarios where energy prices remain steep, global growth could slow to 2.5 per cent or even around 2.0 per cent.

“This latest shock comes less than a year since the shift in US trade policies, and the transition to a new international trade system is still ongoing,” the IMF said.

A year ago, Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, rocking financial markets and snarling supply chains.

Some of the tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court, but uncertainty lingers as Trump moves to reimpose duties via other means.

Although overall revisions to global growth and inflation appear modest, the IMF cautioned that the war has taken a bigger toll on the Middle East and “vulnerable economies” elsewhere.

“The impact on emerging market and developing economies would be almost twice that on advanced economies,” the fund said.

Higher energy and fertilizer costs could bring steeper food prices, mainly hitting low-income energy importers, Gourinchas said.

Growth projections this year for the Middle East and central Asia were cut by around half to 1.9 per cent.

Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s biggest economy, is set to see 3.1 per cent growth this year, down 1.4 percentage points from January’s expectation.

Among the world’s two biggest economies, US growth is still set to accelerate to 2.3 per cent this year, although the pace of growth was revised slightly lower.

“The US at the margin is benefiting from higher energy prices,” Gourinchas said. But gasoline prices have also jumped for consumers.

China’s growth is anticipated to cool to 4.4 per cent, a touch below the January forecast, too.

The IMF flagged an underlying “unevenness” in both economies.

Domestic activity lags behind exports in China, while a strong showing in the United States has been accompanied by low employment growth.

Euro area growth was revised 0.2 points down to 1.1 per cent for 2026.

While the IMF does not expect inflation expectations to go off-track, there is concern they may not be as well-anchored as before.

Past inflation episodes remain fresh in the public’s minds, and firms might act to restore margins more quickly than before.

“If that happens, then you can get much more persistent inflation going on, that would be reflected in higher inflation expectations,” Gourinchas said. Central banks might then need to step in and raise interest rates to cool the economy, despite ongoing negative supply shocks.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its forecast for Russia’s economic growth this year ‌to 1.1%, from 0.8% previously, due to higher ​oil and other commodity prices as a result ‌of the Middle ‌East crisis.

The Russian economy slowed sharply in 2025 to around 1% growth, down from 4.9% in ‌2024, due to the central bank’s tight monetary policy and Western sanctions. The economy is also under strain from spending on the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s fortunes changed after prices for oil, its main export commodity, spiked when Iran blocked the Strait of ​Hormuz, a major route for global oil trade, ‌in response to US and Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28.

“In Russia, higher commodity prices are projected to drive the 0.3 percentage point upward revision of 2026 growth relative to January, to 1.1%, with ​the ‌momentum continuing to register another 1.1% growth rate ‌in 2027,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.

Agencies