India likely to outperform global financial markets in new year

Sharing his annual outlook for the new year, S Naren, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund said 2025 turned out to be a "year of hibernation” for Indian markets, even though the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals remained strong.

"India maintained low fiscal and current account deficits, controlled inflation and healthy economic growth,” Naren mentioned.

Despite these positives, Indian equities failed to deliver strong returns and the rupee underperformed against most global currencies, including the US dollar.

Looking ahead, Naren believes the situation could change in 2026. He said Indian markets are well placed to do better than most global markets in the coming year.

"India continues to offer one of the strongest growth stories over the next decade, supported by favourable demographics and long-term economic potential,” he mentioned.

Naren advised investors to focus on proper asset allocation rather than chasing short-term returns.

He suggested that portfolios could have a slightly higher allocation to equities compared to early 2025, as Indian markets have underperformed many global markets over the past year.

He said this creates an opportunity for investors who are willing to take measured risks.

At the same time, Naren cautioned investors about increasing exposure to precious metals. He noted that gold and silver have been the best-performing asset classes over the past one year and even over longer periods, which has led to stretched valuations.

Silver prices have more than doubled in the last year, while gold prices have risen over 70 per cent, far outperforming equity indices that delivered returns of around 10 per cent.

Naren also highlighted that global risks remain high. He warned that many international markets appear overvalued, especially US technology stocks, and that precious metals are showing signs of excessive optimism.

In this environment, he stressed the need for a balanced and cautious investment approach, combining growth opportunities with risk management as markets head into 2026.

The combined market capitalisation of seven of the top-10 most-valued companies rose by Rs 1.23 lakh crore last week, tracking a positive trend in the equity markets as benchmark indices posted healthy gains.

The upbeat sentiment helped the Sensex climb 720.56 points, or 0.84 per cent, during the week − reflecting broad-based buying interest across sectors.

Among the top-10 most valuable companies, shares of HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Unilever ended the week with higher valuations.

State Bank of India emerged as one of the biggest gainers, with its market capitalisation rising by Rs 30,414.89 crore to Rs 9,22,461.77 crore.

Larsen & Toubro added Rs 16,204.34 crore to reach a valuation of Rs 5,72,640.56 crore, while Hindustan Unilever saw its market value climb by Rs 14,626.21 crore to Rs 5,51,637.04 crore.

HDFC Bank’s market capitalisation increased by Rs 13,538.43 crore to Rs 15,40,303.87 crore.

ICICI Bank also saw gains, with its valuation rising by Rs 3,103.99 crore to Rs 9,68,773.14 crore.

Bharti Airtel’s market value edged higher by Rs 570.21 crore to Rs 12,01,262.53 crore.

On the other hand, some companies witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation despite the broader market strength.

The valuation of Tata Consultancy Services fell by Rs 10,745.72 crore to Rs 11,75,914.62 crore.

Infosys saw its market capitalisation drop by Rs 6,183.25 crore to Rs 6,81,635.59 crore, while Bajaj Finance lost Rs 5,693.58 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 6,16,430.43 crore.

Meanwhile, commenting on Nifty technical outlook, an analyst said that "on the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 26,400, followed by 26,500 and 26,600, while on the downside, support is seen at 26,200 and then at 26,100.” Bank Nifty ended the session with sustained bullish momentum, scaling a fresh all-time high of 60,203 and gaining 439 points before closing the week at 60,150.95.

"However, if selling pressure re-emerges and the index decisively breaks below the 59,900 mark, it could open the door for a deeper corrective move toward the 59,700-59,500 zone, with the possibility of further downside if weakness intensifies,” an analyst said.

"On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 60,300, followed by 60,500 and 60,700. The weekly RSI stands at 69.31 and continues to trend higher,” according to the analyst.

Agencies