UAE non-oil exports excluding re-exports jump 130% to $150b

Staff Reporter, Gulf Today

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) growing network of free trade agreements (FTAs) could redefine the region’s economic future, but only if their design matches their ambition.

A new study by Arthur D. Little (ADL) highlights that while new trade frameworks promise to expand market access, their long-term value will depend on the quality of the Rules of Origin (RoO) and Product-Specific Rules (PSRs) that determine who truly benefits.

These provisions decide whether a product qualifies for preferential tariffs, shaping export competitiveness and protecting or exposing emerging local industries.

For the GCC – and particularly for the UAE, which is advancing multiple FTAs and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements – the immediate test is ensuring that new trade deals strengthen local industries instead of diluting them.

GCC non-oil exports have risen from $330 billion in 2018 to $411 billion in 2023, a near 25 per cent increase in five years. Imports, however, have grown even faster – from $512 billion to $804 billion during the same period – widening the region’s non-oil trade deficit.

In the UAE alone, non-oil exports excluding re-exports climbed from $65 billion in 2019 to $150 billion in 2024, marking a 130 per cent increase in five years.

These figures highlight the importance of designing future agreements that translate headline growth into sustainable, broad-based economic gains.

Rony Najem, Principal at Arthur D. Little Middle East, said “Balanced provisions and product specific rules enable Free Trade Agreements to deliver substantialbenefits — fostering growth by promoting exports and safeguarding local industries.”

The report, Redefining Free Trade Agreements, finds that poorly structured RoO can neutralise the advantages that FTAs are meant to deliver. They can block exporters from claiming tariff preferences or allow goods with minimal local value-add to enter duty-free, eroding domestic production.

Conversely, well-designed RoO can unlock new export sectors, stimulate investment, and strengthen the manufacturing base. The study illustrates this through two global examples that show how the fine print determines success. Under the ASEAN–India FTA, bilateral trade increased from $40 billion in 2009 to $102 billion in 2023 – a 250 per cent rise – but India’s trade deficit with ASEAN widened by 260 per cent, prompting a policy rethink. In North America, the shift from NAFTA to the US–Mexico–Canada 2 Agreement raised local value requirements for vehicles from 62.5 to 75 per cent, triggering a sixfold increase in manufacturing investment between 2018 and 2022.

The report introduces a data-driven framework designed to turn free trade negotiations into instruments of industrial strategy. It equips policymakers with a structured way to shape product-specific rules (PSRs) around real production capacity, supply chain dynamics, and national development goals.

By aligning the rules of each product with its economic role, governments can decide where openness will accelerate exports and where stricter thresholds are needed to nurture local value creation.

The result is a clearer, more enforceable trade system – one that rewards genuine regional integration and limits the loopholes that allow tariff circumvention.

Serge Accary, Manager at Arthur D. Little Middle East, said “Defining Product Specific Rules requires a scientific, data-driven approach that considers product competitiveness, localisation potential, and national priorities.”

The study positions the GCC’s trade agenda – spanning active FTAs with Arab partners, Singapore, and EFTA, signed frameworks with Pakistan, New Zealand, and South Korea, and ongoing negotiations with the UK, China, Japan, Türkiye, and Indonesia – as a moment of both opportunity and accountability.

With diversification and industrial resilience at the core of regional policy, the outcome of these negotiations will depend less on their geographical coverage than on the rigour of their design.

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