UAE’s non-oil activities continue to demonstrate strong resilience

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2025 highlighted that non-oil activities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continued to demonstrate strong resilience, with overall output growth remaining steady. The report noted that the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded in August to 53.3, after easing in July to 52.9, its lowest level in four years, as regional uncertainty and intensifying competition weighed on new orders.

The report further underlined that the country’s macroeconomic resilience was also reflected in Fitch Ratings’ affirmation of the UAE’s sovereign credit rating at “AA-” with a stable outlook, underscoring the strength of sovereign assets and bolstering investor confidence.

In addition, the strong performance of non-oil trade reinforced diversification efforts, with foreign trade expanding by 24% in the first half of 2025, far outpacing global trade growth of 1.8%. This, the report emphasised, strengthens the UAE’s role as a global trade hub and underpins the dynamism of non-oil sectors throughout the year.

Tourism was also highlighted as a key driver of growth, with Dubai welcoming nearly 10 million visitors during the first six months of the year. This performance is in line with the Emirate’s “D33” economic agenda, which aims to position Dubai as a leading global destination, contributing to fiscal revenues and enhancing overall macroeconomic stability.

On the global oil market, the report stated that the forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 remains at about 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Within the regions, oil demand in the OECD is projected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is expected to increase by about 1.2 mb/d.

For 2026, global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.4 mb/d, also unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Of this, OECD demand is projected to expand by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y, while non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by around 1.2 mb/d. The report added that transportation fuels - including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel - are set to remain the main drivers of demand growth in both years, followed closely by LPG and naphtha used in the petrochemical sector.

According to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for July, The UAE’s non-oil economy remains on solid ground, with the June PMI expanding slightly to stand at 53.5, following a solid level of 53.3 in May and 54 in April, signalling continued expansion, despite some deceleration in momentum,

Moreover, the monthly report said, the private sector continued to perform strongly, with the UAE’s real estate and tourism sectors continuing to show strong momentum in 2025. In Dubai, year-to-date real estate transaction volumes through June rose 24%, y-o-y, with values up 38%, y-o-y, reflecting broad-based growth across all segments. In June alone, volumes and values increased by around 17%, y-o-y.

In Abu Dhabi, 2Q25 real-estate volumes rose 7%, y-o-y, while values surged 45% on an annual basis.

Tourism in Dubai also remained robust, with May 2025 arrivals up 6%, y-o-y, and year-to-date figures around 7% higher than the previous year. This level is about 21% above pre-COVID-19 levels, while hotel occupancy rose to 83%. In the meantime, the country is actively diversifying the economy and building international partnerships to support investment and economic diversification.

The MOMR noted that important developments include new agreements on the launch of a UAE-US Framework on Advanced Technology Cooperation, underscoring a shared focus on innovation, investment, and the strategic transferral of knowledge. These efforts, among others, are part of broader national strategies to position the country as a global centre for innovation and sustainable economic growth.

In April, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affirmed that the UAE’s non-oil economy continued to exhibit a healthy growth dynamic, with the most recent data and economic indicators highlighting a robust expansion.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report issued today, OPEC noted that the UAE is pushing ahead with initiatives to diversify the economy, with initiatives such as ‘Operation 300bn’, aiming to boost manufacturing, expand export markets, and attract foreign investment.

The report said that the Abu Dhabi and Dubai governments will continue to provide support to their economies’ diversification efforts. The authorities are introducing policies to encourage the development of new sectors, including the digital sector, fintech, creative industries, scientific innovation, new energy sectors, and education.

It explained that strong performance in sectors like tourism, finance, and construction continues to support growth. The solid performance is highlighted by the UAE’s high PMI, reaching 54 in March, compared with a level of 55 in February and January.

WAM