Dubai 2025: 431bn closed, 69% off-plan, 4m residents — the numbers behind Salman Bin Ali’s Call

Fitch sees room for moderation—up to 15% into 2026—as roughly 210,000 units are scheduled for delivery. Yet it also notes banks’ real-estate exposure has fallen to ~14% and developers are far better capitalised than a decade ago: risk to manage, not a system in distress. On the ground, the tape is still strong. Dubai logged AED 431bn across 125,538 real-estate transactions in H1 2025, about +25% YoY in value, signalling breadth of liquidity rather than fragility. In Q1 2025 alone, the city recorded ~43,000 sales worth AED 114.7bn.

Off-plan accounted for 69% of transactions; prices rose 3.7% in the quarter and now sit 17.6% above the 2014 peak—evidence that much of the “future supply” is presold and staggered via handovers, not dumped at once. Depth at the top end confirms real cash.

There were 111 sales above US$10m in Q1 2025, the strongest first quarter on record, while scarcity in prime and branded stock continues to support adjacent sub-markets. The population engine is also running: Dubai’s resident count stood at 3,999,247 on August 26, 2025—effectively four million—a structural driver as renters graduate to ownership. Salman Bin Ali’s read is blunt: “If a market is truly weakening, it doesn’t set records in transactions while adding residents at speed.

Dubai is doing both. Scheduled supply isn’t deliverable supply—presales and normal handover slippage release keys in waves to buyers already in the queue.” Why Dubai converts this global pivot: residency and tax clarity (0% personal income tax; 9% corporate tax above AED 375,000) enable predictable planning; Golden Visa routes, including AED 2m+ property with rules for mortgaged units, turn interest into permanence.

A pre-sold pipeline—69% off-plan in Q1—means many incoming keys already have buyers attached and handovers are naturally staggered. Market depth—AED 431bn/125,538 deals in H1—shows broad clearing across segments. Prime scarcity—111 US$10m+ Q1 deals—signals genuine capital meeting limited stock. Financial-hub scale adds pull: DIFC added 1,081 firms in H1 2025 to reach 7,700 active, bringing hedge funds, wealth managers, and family-business entities that anchor mandates locally.

Wealth inflows strengthen the bid: the UAE is forecast to attract a record net +9,800 millionaires in 2025, topping the global table. “I buy reality, not noise,” Salman says. “Reality is AED 431bn closed in six months, 69% off-plan in Q1, record ultra-prime, a city near four million residents, and a financial hub scaling with demand. Use any softness to upgrade quality—stronger developers, better locations, cleaner exits. That is how capital compounds in Dubai.”