UAE economy set to grow 4.4% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026: CBUAE

The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) has issued its 2024 Financial Stability Report, which includes a comprehensive assessment of financial system stability and financial developments across sectors amidst increased global challenges and risks.

The report affirmed the robustness of the UAE banking sector, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers, alongside improved asset quality and continued growth. Financial stability risks in the country remained broadly contained and unchanged, due to robust economic fundamentals, prudent policies, and effective risk management.

The report reviews domestic and global macroeconomic trends, financial market conditions, the performance of various sectors, and regulatory developments, with a focus on resilience aspects and emerging risks.

It also underscores the CBUAE’s commitment to fostering proactive risk monitoring, innovation, and transparency, supporting financial system resilience, and collaborating with local and international partners to enhance the UAE’s position as a leading global financial hub.

The strong performance of the financial system contributed to enhancing the nation’s economic resilience. The UAE’s real GDP grew by 4 per cent in 2024, driven by growth momentum in the non-oil sector, a key driver for economic diversification. The overall GDP growth outlook is also expected to remain positive for the coming years, reaching 4.4 per cent in 2025 and rising to 5.4 per cent in 2026.

In 2024, the UAE’s financial system experienced robust and stable conditions. A significant step in enhancing coordination among key stakeholders was the operationalisation of the UAE Financial Stability Council, chaired by His Highness Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Vice President, Deputy Prime Minister, Chairman of the Presidential Court, Chairman of the Central Bank and Chairman of the Financial Stability Council.

This move represented a crucial stride towards bolstering coordination among stakeholders, activating systemic risk oversight, facilitating the assessment of emerging risks, and streamlining timely policy responses to horizontal risks.

2024 also saw the CBUAE reinforce its regulatory and supervisory frameworks through the implementation of new macroprudential tools, strengthening cybersecurity requirements, advancing in sustainable finance, and expanding the scope of climate change risk assessment, in line with international best practices.

The comprehensive stress tests conducted by the CBUAE in 2024 confirmed the ability of the UAE’s banks to absorb macroeconomic shocks, continue providing credit facilities even under hypothetical adverse scenarios, and maintain high levels of capital and liquidity exceeding minimum requirements, highlighting the banking sector’s resilience in addressing global risks.

The UAE’s non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) sector achieved significant positive results at various levels. The insurance sector remained resilient, with adequate solvency positions and substantial growth of 21.4 per cent, bringing total gross written premiums to Dhs64.8 billion, thereby reinforcing policyholders’ rights.

Overall, finance companies maintained adequate capitalisation with further improvements in liquidity levels, while money exchange businesses continued to demonstrate their resilience and operational stability.

2024 also witnessed an acceleration in digital transformation, reflected in increased adoption rates of FinTech and digital payments, the expansion of banking services, and the integration of artificial intelligence and data analytics.

The CBUAE continued to develop the national payment and settlement infrastructure through the launch of the Domestic Card Scheme “Jaywan”, the widespread adoption of the “Aani” Instant Payment Platform, and the progress made in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) “Digital Dirham”, all of which enhanced the financial system’s efficiency and resilience.

The report anticipates that the outlook for the UAE’s financial system will remain positive, supported by robust economic fundamentals, prudent economic management, and the CBUAE’s efforts to support financial system resilience, enhance proactive risk monitoring, innovation, and transparency.

Khaled Mohamed Balama, Governor of the CBUAE, said, “The UAE maintained strong economic and financial conditions in 2024, despite growing economic challenges and increasing global risks, supported by national economic growth and the banking system’s robustness and resilience.

“At CBUAE, we are committed to steadily progressing towards achieving the vision of our wise leadership, the nation’s development plans, and our strategic objectives by developing the financial system’s regulatory and supervisory framework to ensure sustainable resilience, enhance financial and economic stability, and drive growth momentum and prosperity in the UAE.” Meanwhile, The Abu Dhabi’s non-oil foreign trade continued its growth trajectory, recording a strong performance during the first half of current year (From January to June 2025), soaring 34.7% to Dhs195.4 billion compared to Dhs145 billion during the corresponding period in 2024, according to statistics released Today by Abu Dhabi Customs.

This growth reflects the resilience and dynamism of Abu Dhabi’s economy, supported by the efficiency of its infrastructure and the advancement of logistics services, which have helped facilitate trade flows and enhance the smooth movement of goods through border crossings.

During the first six months of 2025, the Abu Dhabi’s non-oil exports grew by 64%, reaching Dhs78.5 billion, up from Dhs47.9 billion in H1-2024. Imports rose by 15% to Dhs80 billion, compared to Dhs70 billion. Meanwhile, re-exports registered a 35% increase, surpassing Dhs36 billion, compared to Dhs26.6 billion in the first half of 2024.

The increase in non-oil foreign trade volume underscores the strength of Abu Dhabi’s economic diversification strategies, forward-looking policies, and significant investments across key sectors. These efforts collectively support the emirate’s drive to strengthen its position as a leading regional and global trade and logistics hub.

Ahmed Jasim Al Zaabi, Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED), said, “Abu Dhabi’s non-oil foreign trade steady performance in H1- 2025 reaffirms our position as a global economic powerhouse, bridging East and West, North and South. Our consistent growth, amid the challenges in the international trade and global economy, reflects the strengths of our long-term economic planning, decisive policy execution, and our commitment to enabling fair and free exchange of goods, services, and innovations”.

Al Zaabi added, “We are doubling down our efforts to position Abu Dhabi among the world’s most business-ready economies by streamlining trade procedures, deploying smart systems, and integrating services to enhance flow and accelerate efficiency, cementing Abu Dhabi’s position as global trade and investment centre and a key node on international supply chains.” Rashed Lahej Al Mansoori, Director-General of Abu Dhabi Customs, said, “The growth in non-oil foreign trade during the first half of 2025 reflects the success of Abu Dhabi’s economic strategies, and highlights the effectiveness of efforts made by Abu Dhabi Customs, in collaboration with strategic partners, to facilitate trade. These efforts are driven by the adoption of advanced systems, innovations, and digital technologies.” He emphasised the continued commitment to developing a proactive and agile customs ecosystem that supports global supply chains and enhances the emirate’s competitiveness as a regional and international hub for trade and business.

“Abu Dhabi Customs remains dedicated to delivering best-in-class services and procedures that accelerate customs clearance and promote integration with both local and international partners, thereby supporting sustainable growth, enabling the future economy, and reinforcing Abu Dhabi’s position on the global trade map,” Al Mansoori concluded.

WAM