Wall Street, dollar firm ahead of a big week for market risk

Wall Street and the dollar firmed on Friday as investors girded themselves for the week ahead, which includes a Federal Reserve policy meeting, crucial corporate results and US President Donald Trump’s August 1 deadline for negotiating trade deals.

“Some deals will be done and talks will continue, and Trump may push out the deadline further,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. “Trump’s process is to shock and then be reasonable in terms of tariffs.” All three indexes were modestly green in early trading, and were on course for weekly gains.

Gold lost some shine, pressured by the dollar as healthy risk appetites lured investors away from the safe-haven metal. With Trump’s negotiating deadline just a week away, the US and its trading partners are scrambling to reach trade agreements, with European negotiators heartened by the deal with Japan announced on Tuesday. Intel’s shares INTC.O dropped 8.8% after the chipmaker forecast steeper-than-expected quarterly losses and said it had halted or scrapped new factory projects in the US and Europe.

More than a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have posted results, 80% of which have beaten estimates, according to LSEG data.

Analysts now expect year-on-year second-quarter earnings growth of 7.7%, compared with the 5.8% estimate as of July 1.

Four members of the Magnificent 7 group of Artificial Intelligence-related megacap stocks - Amazon, Apple , Meta and Microsoft are on next week’s earnings docket, and market participants will scrutinize the companies’ conference calls for signs that AI expenditures are beginning to pay off and whether tariff-related uncertainties continue to weigh on forward guidance.

US economic data released on Friday showed an unexpected decline in new orders for core capital goods, as companies hold back on big ticket purchases amid the fog of ongoing trade talks. The Fed is expected to convene next week for its two-day monetary policy meeting, which is expected to culminate in a decision to let its federal funds target rate stand in the 4.25% to 4.50% range. The meeting comes at a moment in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell is facing criticism from Trump for not cutting rates.

“I don’t expect Powell to change what he does, nor should he,” Ghriskey added. “The idea of lower interest rates should scare us because Fed has had this huge job of bringing down inflation, and to ease rates at this point is clearly going to be inflationary.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 113.54 points, or 0.25%, to 44,806.30, the S&P 500 rose 16.19 points, or 0.26%, to 6,379.67 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 44.40 points, or 0.21%, to 21,102.36.

European shares gave back some of the previous session’s gains as market participants parsed mixed corporate earnings and awaited developments in the U.S.-EU trade negotiations. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell 1.01 points, or 0.11%, to 940.34. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.29%, while Europe’s broad FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 5.34 points, or 0.24%. Emerging market stocks fell 10.36 points, or 0.82%, to 1,256.93. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.95%, to 661.07, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 370.11 points, or 0.88%, to 41,456.23.

US Treasury yields drifted higher in a subdued trading as investors braced for a data-heavy week, updates on US trade talks, and a Federal Reserve policy meeting. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 0.2 basis points to 4.41%, from 4.408% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond yield rose 0.5 basis points to 4.9543% from 4.949% late on Thursday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 0.6 basis points to 3.919%, from 3.925% late on Thursday.

The dollar gained strength but remained on course for its biggest drop in a month as investors focused on tariff negotiations and central bank meetings on the calendar for next week. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.28% to 97.72, with the euro down 0.2% at $1.173. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.4% to 147.57. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.08% to $115,133.22. Ethereum declined 2.63% to $3,641.43. Oil prices softened as investors mulled the global demand outlook and a potential supply increase from Venezuela. US crude fell 0.56% to $65.63 a barrel and Brent fell to $68.91 per barrel, down 0.39% on the day.

Gold prices dropped in opposition to the firming dollar, amid growing optimism surrounding U.S.-EU trade talks. Spot gold fell 0.93% to $3,336.52 an ounce. US gold futures fell 0.85% to $3,342.50 an ounce.

Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Friday, led by technology shares, even as US President Donald Trump suggested the United States may not reach a negotiated trade deal with Canada.

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.2% to 27,427.78 points, remaining on track for a modest weekly gain.

Trump said on Friday that the United States may not reach a trade agreement with Canada, hinting his administration could set a tariff rate unilaterally.

Agencies