Pakistan June inflation rises 3.2% y/y, in line with forecast

Pakistan’s consumer price inflation rose 3.2 per cent year-on-year in June, the statistics bureau said on Tuesday, broadly in line with the finance ministry’s projection of 3 per cent to 4 per cent issued a day earlier.

On a month-on-month basis, prices increased 0.2 per cent in June, reversing a 0.2 per cent decline in May.

The data comes after Pakistan’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 11 per cent in June.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its latest monetary policy statement that inflation was expected to show some near-term volatility but gradually stabilise within the 5 per cent to 7 per cent target range.

The figures also come weeks after Pakistan unveiled its annual budget, which included new revenue measures and subsidy cuts as part of efforts to secure a long-term loan programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Analysts have warned that higher energy and tax costs could stoke inflation in the second half of the year.

Pakistan’s stock exchange rose 2.3 per cent on the day to close at an all-time high of 128475.7 points, on Tuesday, the first day of the new fiscal year.

Meanwhile last week the Government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development programme (Subprogram-II),” aimed at strengthening women’s access to finance and advancing gender-inclusive economic development.

According to the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP), which cited a press release issued by the Economic Affairs Division, the agreement was signed by Sabina Qureshi, Additional Secretary of the Economic Affairs Division, and Dinesh Raj Shiwakoti, Head of the Project Administration Unit at ADB.

The State Bank of Pakistan signed the Project Agreement for the Financial Intermediary Loan.

This agreement reflects the Government of Pakistan’s continued commitment to empowering women economically by expanding access to financial resources, encouraging entrepreneurship, and generating employment opportunities.

The initiative is designed to promote a more inclusive and sustainable economic future for women across the country. Subprogram II builds on the foundational policy reforms introduced under Subprogram I and focuses on four strategic areas. These include establishing a supportive policy and regulatory framework for women’s financial inclusion; increasing the availability of financial resources tailored for women; strengthening the entrepreneurial skills and capabilities of women; and fostering inclusive and equitable workplace environments within the financial sector.

Meanwhile Pakistan has been ranked among the world’s top emerging economies following a significant drop in its default risk in a major boost to investor sentiment and international credibility.

According to a new report by the globally renowned financial data agency Bloomberg, Pakistan’s probability of default has declined from 59 per cent to 47 per cent over the past 12 months — a notable improvement of 1100 basis points.

The report highlights Pakistan’s growing economic stability and successful financial reforms as key factors behind this improvement. Bloomberg attributes the positive shift to enhanced investor confidence, improved foreign exchange reserves, successful negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and increased efforts to boost revenue through domestic reforms. Pakistan’s inclusion at the top of Bloomberg’s list of emerging economies reflects a strong endorsement of the government’s recent economic measures. The report states that credit rating upgrades and strengthened relations with international financial institutions have contributed to a more stable outlook, encouraging global investors to re-engage with Pakistan.

“Pakistan’s significant reduction in default risk sends a powerful message to the global financial community,” the report noted. “It is a major milestone on the country’s path to economic recovery.”

Bloomberg’s data also compared Pakistan’s performance with other emerging economies. Countries like Argentina, Tunisia, and Nigeria saw modest improvements in their default risk (falling by -7 per cent, -4 per cent, and -5 per cent, respectively), while others, such as Turkiye, Ecuador, Egypt, and Gabon, remain in the high-risk category. Pakistan’s improved economic outlook has also been supported by a gradual rise in remittances and exports, both key components of the country’s external financial health.

The default probability down from 59 per cent to 47 per cent, a massive 1,100 basis points improvement.

Agencies