Picture used for illustration.File
Unlike most countries, Sweden never locked down during the coronavirus pandemic, largely keeping businesses operating, but the economy appears to be taking a hard hit nonetheless.
Under the Scandinavian country's controversial approach to the virus, cafes, bars, restaurants and most businesses remained open, as did schools for under-16s, with people urged to follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines.
Whatever hope there may have been that this policy would soften the economic blow now seems dashed.
"As in most of the world, there will be a record decline for the Swedish economy in Q2," SEB bank economist Olle Holmgren said.
To be fair, Swedish officials insist their strategy was always aimed at public health, and never specifically at saving the economy.
The idea was to make sure hospitals could keep pace with the outbreak and protect the elderly and at-risk groups.
Sweden has succeeded at the former, but admitted failure at the latter, with more than three-quarters of virus deaths occurring among nursing home residents and those receiving care at home.
Still, authorities acknowledge that keeping businesses open was also part of a broader public health consideration, as high unemployment and a weak economy typically lead to poorer public health.
Sweden, a country of 10.3 million, had reported 4,639 COVID-19 deaths as of Friday.
That gives it one of the world's highest virus mortality rates, with 459.3 deaths per million inhabitants -- four times more than neighbouring Denmark and 10 times more than Norway, which both imposed stricter confinement measures.
At first Sweden's export-heavy economy seemed to be doing okay, with GDP actually growing by 0.1 percent in the first quarter.
But now the country is expected to follow the same path as most of Europe, with its economy shrinking for the full-year 2020 and unemployment soaring.
While the European Commission has forecast a Swedish contraction of 6.1 percent (compared to -6.5 percent for Germany and -7.7 percent for the eurozone), the outlook presented by the Swedish central bank is even more dire -- it anticipates a GDP decline of up to 10 percent.
Before the crisis, Sweden's labour market was in good shape, with strong job creation and a declining unemployment rate.
Now, the government expects a jobless rate of nine percent for 2020 and 2021, compared to 6.8 percent in 2019.
"70 percent of Swedish exports go to the EU. Shutdowns in Germany, the UK and so on are expected to hit Swedish exports considerably," the government said.
In March, some of the country's biggest companies, such as automaker Volvo Cars and truckmaker Scania, halted production in Sweden.
This was not because of local restrictions, but because of problems with supply chains in Europe and the rest of the world. Their activities have since resumed.
"Sweden is paying the same price (as Denmark) for the coronavirus pandemic. The explanation is that when you are in a galloping crisis, consumers pull the emergency brake, whether restaurants are closed or not," Niels Johannesen, one of the four economists, told Swedish daily Helsingborgs Dagblad.
The government in mid-March announced measures worth nearly $32 billion to help businesses.
Since then, more money has been allocated and new measures have been added, including a reduction of employers' contributions, as well as paying companies' costs for furloughed workers and sick leave.
"Given the state of government finances there is room for more expansionary fiscal policy ahead," Olle Holmgren promised.
State Premier Daniel Andrews, however, said large industries would have to close for the next six weeks. Victoria has recorded several hundred new COVID-19 infections each day for the last few weeks.
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