Five massive warning indicators for Democrats

Candy Woodall, Tribune News Service

Kamala Harris’ historic campaign, which launched with joy and once seemed destined for an inevitable victory, is now dogged by doubt. There are three weeks until the presidential election, but the postmortem analyses have already begun. One of the most prominent diagnoses came from former President Barack Obama last Thursday. At a campaign stop in Pittsburgh, with its mix of blue-collar labour jobs and white-collar tech and medical careers, Obama addressed one of the biggest warning signs for Democrats: an enthusiasm gap, especially among Black men. Donald Trump, who has been running for the same office nearly nonstop since 2015, still has a base of energised voters so loyal they’d swim Pittsburgh’s frigid three rivers in January to get to the polls if needed. But Harris, who has been a presidential candidate for less than three months, already has an enthusiasm problem? Obama is right to worry — especially in Pennsylvania.

The battleground state north of Maryland was the keystone to Trump’s 2016 victory, and four years later it sent Joe Biden to the White House. One of the reasons Trump won eight years ago is because Clinton couldn’t hold onto the Obama coalition of Black, Latino and young voters. She still won them overall, but Trump won a larger share than Obama’s Republican challengers in 2008 and 2012. Cutting into the Democratic base and driving up rural votes helped Trump win Pennsylvania by a little more than 44,000 votes, or 1%.

Here are four more warning signs for Dems:

Trump has his biggest polling lead in eight years: This year marks the first time polls have shown Trump ahead in October during a presidential election. Granted, his lead is about 1 point in the top battleground states — well within the margin of error — but Democrats have reason to worry. Clinton had about a 10-point lead at this stage of the 2016 election, and she still lost. Biden was up by about 7 points at the same time in 2020, and he won. Trump is leading by about 1 point in every major battleground except Wisconsin, where he is down by less than a point.

Voters have a more favorable view of Trump than they did in 2016 and 2020: Democrats and the Never Trumpers like to point to his laundry list of lies, the Jan. 6 insurrection, the criminal indictments against him and an assortment of awful things he has said in an attempt to disqualify him and question why anyone would vote for him. But despite all those points, voters in Pennsylvania — which has the largest share of electoral votes (19) of any battleground state — have a more favorable view of him now than in the previous two elections. His favorability rating is still negative, but it’s less negative than it was. In September 2016, Trump’s net favorable rating was -28. In September 2020, it was -17. And last month, it was -9. Harris is at -3, according to the Franklin & Marshall Poll in Pennsylvania. Also concerning for Democrats: Trump’s presidential job approval in September 2020 was -22. Biden’s is presently -28, according to the same poll.

Democrats are flailing in Senate races: If Democrats lose their Senate majority, it won’t be a huge surprise. The map favored Republicans before the campaign began. There are close races in battleground states, red states and blue states alike. Even reliably blue Maryland has a competitive race, though the state still leans Democratic, according to most political analysts. Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio and Wisconsin are struggling, and West Virginia independent Sen. Joe Manchin, who caucuses with Democrats, is on track to lose his seat.

Harris is struggling to define herself: Democrats repeat the same mistakes against Trump. They tiptoe and waffle on too many issues, shrink themselves, and desperately try not to offend any voting groups, while Trump has no problem offending anyone. Though many voters have said he’s crazy and crass, they seem to appreciate that he’s true to himself. Perhaps Biden’s authenticity helped him defeat Trump, along with the electorate’s disapproval of the Republican former president’s handling of COVID. Harris, like Clinton in 2016, is struggling to appear authentic. She’s flip-flopped on several issues. She’s waited too long to do media interviews and often does them with friendly hosts who throw more softballs than fastballs. (Trump also avoids most media interviews).

A bigger problem is that she’s not drawing enough contrasts with Trump. The economy is the top issue for the majority of voters. Why isn’t Harris speaking to that every day? Why isn’t she pointing out that she’s championing working-class voters while Trump campaigns with Elon Musk, the richest man in the world with a net worth of $241 billion? She’s also not drawing enough of a contrast with Biden, which is challenging because she’s his vice president. She’s also the Democratic nominee for president only because Biden dropped out of the race. But one of her worst moments of the campaign was during an appearance on “The View,” earlier this month. When asked what she would have done differently than Biden, she said, “Not a thing that comes to mind.”

That answer might not be a problem for “The View” hosts, her supporters or most people along the Beltway. But for average voters, who do not follow political news or economic news, it’s a red flag. They don’t pay attention to politics every day. They may not know how or why inflation happens. They just know their cost of living is higher, and they tend to blame the sitting president for that. If Harris wants to win, she’s going to need to do more than appeal to unenthusiastic Black men. She’s going to have to convince all voters why she’s different and a better choice than Trump — and Biden.