GOP effort to oust Peltola may hinge on who finishes second

Allison Mollenkamp, Tribune News Service

Alaska Republicans running in Tuesday’s primary could win as many as three spots on the November ballot as they try to oust Democrat Mary Peltola from the state’s only House seat. But that also could splinter the Republican opposition and give the Democrat a second full term. Alaska’s unique election law uses an all-party primary to choose four candidates for the November general election, in which voters rank their choices. Along with Peltola, who has a significant fundraising advantage, others in the 12-candidate field likely to advance to the general election are 2022 candidate Nick Begich and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, both Republicans. Their finishing order, however, could determine the GOP’s ability to consolidate support. Peltola is one of five House Democrats representing a district former President Donald Trump won in 2020. Alaska’s Republican lean – Trump won there by 10 percentage points – and the party’s current narrow majority in the House make Alaska’s at-large seat a must-win for Republicans. However, Peltola’s incumbency and her somewhat conservative positions on guns and energy could make her a tough political target come November.

Begich, the grandson of former Democratic Alaska Rep. Nick Begich, is supported by the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus. He pledged in April to drop out if he is not the top Republican finisher in the primary; Dahlstrom has not made a similar pledge. In a Data for Progress poll conducted in February and March, Begich polled well ahead of Dahlstrom and ran even with Peltola. However, Trump endorsed Dahlstrom in June, and she now has the financial support of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with the House GOP leadership. Despite her position as lieutenant governor, Dahlstrom has relatively low name recognition in the state. Her campaign is focused on the November general election, when supporters hope Trump’s position atop the ballot and Dahlstrom’s goodwill with other Republicans can propel her to victory in a tough race.

In 2020, Alaska voters approved a ballot measure to implement ranked-choice voting and a nonpartisan top-four primary. The four contenders are ranked, and if the leader does not get more than 50 percent, the fourth-place finisher is eliminated and his or her votes are added to the second choice of those voters until one candidate gets a majority. In 2022, after the death of longtime Republican Alaska Rep. Don Young, Peltola won an August special election for the remainder of Young’s term and a full term that November. In both elections, Begich and former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin — who was endorsed by Trump — split the Republican vote and, after two rounds of ranked choice elimination, Peltola won a full term. Republicans have since pushed to eliminate ranked-choice voting and the nonpartisan primary. The fate of a proposed ballot initiative that would do just that is before the Alaska Supreme Court.

Amy Lovecraft, a professor of political science at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said the ranked-choice system can push voters to vote according to their policy preferences, rather than party loyalty. But that doesn’t mean parties can’t attempt to use or work around the system for their own aims. Begich’s pledge to drop out if he doesn’t place first among Republicans is part of a larger push to “circumvent” the ranked-choice system and consolidate support around Republican candidates. Democrats also appear to be trying to use the top-four primary to their advantage by elevating a third Republican candidate to the general election. Vote Alaska Before Party, a liberal Super PAC, spent $924,000 on the race, and is airing an ad that attacks Dahlstrom, Begich and Republican Gerald Heikes, a perennial candidate, for their opposition to abortion rights. While ostensibly an attack, it also raises Heikes’ profile and could earn him votes that might otherwise go to Dahlstrom or Begich.

Dahlstrom has also gotten a boost from outside spending, with $254,000 coming from the Congressional Leadership Fund and $743,000 from 1959 PAC, a Texas-based group created Aug. 5 that has not yet had to disclose its donors. Peltola has also been the target of negative spending by CLF and the National Republican Congressional Committee, which spent $855,000 against her already. Her campaign, however, had $2.8 million on hand on July 31 after raising $780,000 in the previous month. Dahlstrom’s campaign had $317,000 on hand and Begich $172,000.

Dahlstrom has worked to align her campaign with Trump and against the policies of President Joe Biden’s administration, including by focusing on national issues like immigration and inflation. Peltola combines her stances on two national issues — her support for gun and abortion rights — under the heading of “freedom” on her campaign site. Lovecraft called the move “a stroke of genius.” But candidates are also zeroed in on policy questions specific to Alaska’s economy. Peltola supported the ConocoPhillips Willow oil field project. The project, approved last year by the Biden administration, would construct three new oil drilling pads on Alaska’s North Slope in the National Petroleum Reserve. It drew protests on social media from environmental activists. Peltola touts her support of the project on her campaign site, saying that it would create union jobs and lower energy costs.

Peltola’s support for oil and gas is also benefiting her campaign. Center Forward Committee, a super PAC funded in large part by ConocoPhillips and Chevron, has spent $300,000 to support Peltola. Lovecraft expects that Alaska progressives will vote for Peltola because there is not another strong Democrat in the race, but said Peltola’s support for the Willow project was “very difficult for a lot of her supporters to stomach.” Begich and Dahlstrom also emphasize domestic energy production and support for oil and gas on their campaign websites.

And in a state dependent on commercial, recreational and subsistence fishing, Peltola opposes bottom trawling, a fishing practice that involves dragging weighted nets along the ocean floor, and which can result in bycatch, or the inadvertent capture of other species like sea turtles, whales and dolphins. Begich has said he won’t accept campaign funds from trawler groups. Dahlstrom opposes additional federal regulations on Alaska fisheries, though she also supports Congress “pushing back on Russian trawlers.” Other candidates hoping for one of four spots in the general election include: David Ambrose, a nonpartisan candidate and self-described “free market fiscal conservative;” Samuel Claesson, a nonpartisan candidate who listed a Des Moines, Iowa, address on campaign filings; Lady Donna Dutchess, a nonpartisan candidate; Richard Grayson, who registered under the No Labels party and listed an Arizona address; Eric Hafner, a Democrat who is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence for making threats against public officials in New Jersey; John Wayne Howe, who registered under the Alaska Independence Party; and Republican Matthew Salisbury.