If Trump loses, are we prepared for the backlash?

John M. Crisp, Tribune News Service

If you watched as much of the Republican National Convention as I did, you must have been impressed by the energy, unity and commitment of the speakers and delegates. One could sense the momentum building. And if the convention’s enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump is a reliable reflection of the wishes of millions of American voters, it suggests the very credible possibility that Trump could be reelected to the presidency in November. Things changed when President Joe Biden dropped out, but I suspect that the substitution of Kamala Harris did little to dampen the commitment of millions of Americans to see Donald Trump back in the White House.

A Trump win is a disconcerting prospect for millions of Americans, for various reasons. For example, many are worried about the rise of autocracy around the world and are concerned that the reelection of Trump will encourage autocrats. In fact, Trump gave Viktor Orban, the anti-democratic prime minister of Hungary, a favourable mention during his nomination acceptance speech at the RNC, calling him a “tough guy.” Domestically, other issues that Americans care about will fare poorly under a second Trump presidency: Abortion. Climate change mitigation. Sensible gun laws. If Trump is reelected, the future of these issues and many others will veer in ways that most Americans don’t want. But here’s the thing about a Trump victory: Even though many Americans may not like the resulting policies and administrative actions, a win by Trump is still in the realm of normal American politics as it reflects the choices voters make at the ballot box. But what if Trump loses? What happens to all of the energy and commitment we witnessed at the Republican convention? And should we be worried about it?

Any consideration of these questions has to begin with this stipulation: Under no circumstances will Donald Trump concede that he lost the election, whether the margin is a little or a landslide. Even before voting began in 2016, Trump contended that the only way he could lose was if the election was rigged. When he lost in 2020, he claimed that the election was stolen from him. He hasn’t conceded the last election; there’s no reason to think that he’ll concede this one. Of course, in 2020 Trump was president and he had certain powers at his disposal that he no longer has. Still, it’s dangerous to downplay the passion and commitment on display at the Republican convention by thousands of Trump supporters, who are representative of millions more nationwide. Just as Trump will not accept a loss, neither will they. What does it mean, in a republic, if millions refuse to accept the results of an election, especially if a significant number of them are well-armed and have a passionate, cult-like commitment to a powerful personality? How do we prepare for their reaction to a Trump loss? Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 was the catalyst that caused southern states to begin to secede from the union. Armed rebellion was imminent and threats to Lincoln’s life were credible. Security was in the hands of the Commanding General of the United States Army, Winfield Scott, a grizzled veteran of the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War and the Indian wars. But Scott was born in Virginia, and Lincoln felt compelled to confirm his loyalty and commitment to the transfer of power after a disputed election. Scott replied: “If necessary I shall plant cannon at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and if any of the Maryland or Virginia gentlemen who have become so threatening and troublesome show their heads or even venture to raise a finger, I shall blow them to hell.”

Is this a fanciful, alarmist overreaction in our current situation? Maybe. But remember how shocked we were by Jan. 6, which was a systematically orchestrated attempt to nullify an election by force. We must be as prepared to protect the republic as General Scott was in 1860. To be any less prepared for the worst possibilities would be dangerously naïve.