Prabowo well-placed as Indonesia holds poll

The official count of the Indonesian presidential election would take a month, but private pollsters revealed that Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto had polled around 58 per cent of the vote, ahead of his two rivals, Ganjar Pranowo, former governor of Borneo and Anies Baswedan, former governor of Jakarta. The General Elections Commission has set up more than 800,000 polling booths across the 38 provinces of the 200 million-strong nation.

Prabowo told his supporters, “We should not be arrogant, we should not be proud, we should not be euphoric, we still have to be humble, this victory must be a victory of all Indonesian people.” The cautionary note is justified because he has to win 20 per cent of votes cast in half of the 38 provinces. He has crossed the first hurdle of 50 per cent plus votes going by the trend. It means that there would be no need for a run-off between the top two contenders.

Prabowo enjoyed the support of outgoing president Jokowi Widodo because Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is the running mate, who will be the vice president. The speculation is that Jokowi wants his son to be next president and Prabowo will facilitate this, and that by doing so Widodo is setting up a political dynasty of his own after the long regime of Suharto’s dictatorship from the 1960s to the 1990s.

Indonesia is now one of the vibrant emerging market economies, and one of the tasks of the new president would be to keep the growth momentum. Indonesia with its large population has become an important player in the Indo-Pacific, and because of its market economy it is seen as part of the Western group of democratic nations as opposed to China.

Senior lecturer of politics at Murdoch University’s Indo-Pacific Research Centre  in Western Australia Ian Wilson explained the reasons for Prabowo’s remaining ahead of his rivals in the election. He said, “He targeted a younger demographic by remaking his image through cartoon figures, as a cuddly uncle, casting a kind of a doubt over his human rights record, which for a younger generation is sort of an ancient history for the most part.” Subianto was removed as military commander on the charge that he kidnapped and tortured political opponents under the Suharto regime.

Indonesia hosted the G20 summit in 2022, and it was seen as a recognition of its growing status. Indonesia, like India, maintains good relations with Russia despite the war in Ukraine. This would have strained its relationship with the United States and the NATO, but it did not.

Indonesia is seen as a valuable ally in the Indo-Pacific keeping the dominant presence of China in the region in mind. Indonesia in general has been a politically weak country despite its large population because its economy was not on a strong footing. With the Indonesian economy turning out to be strong, its importance in the strategic balance in the region has also changed.

Prabowo has promised doles for 83 million Indonesians and expressed the view that debt levels can rise to 50 per cent of the GDP, which is cause of worry for the markets. Indonesia has managed to keep its fiscal deficit below three per cent despite the Covid impact. The credit is given to finance minister Sri Mulyani. There is the possibility that she will resign when the new president takes over. Fiscal prudence is what has helped Indonesia to keep its economy on an even keel. Prabowo is expected to continue with Jokowi’s economic policies despite the apprehension that he might indulge in populism going by his campaign promises.