Warhead targeting and provocative launches

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened “more offensive actions” to repel what he called increasing United States-led military threats after he supervised the third test of his country’s most advanced missile designed to strike the mainland US, state media reported Tuesday. Kim’s statement suggests he is confident in his growing missile arsenal and will likely continue weapons testing activities ahead of the 2024 US presidential election. But many observers say North Korea still needs to perform more significant tests to prove it has functioning missiles targeting the US mainland.

After watching Monday’s launch of the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, Kim said the test showed how North Korea could respond if the United States were to make “a wrong decision against it,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency. Kim stressed the need to “never overlook all the reckless and irresponsible military threats of the enemies … and to strongly counter them with more offensive actions,” KCNA said. The Hwasong-18 ICBM is a developmental, solid-fueled ICBM that is considered North Korea’s most powerful weapon. Its built-in solid propellant makes launches harder for outsiders to detect than liquid-fueled missiles, which must be fueled before liftoffs. But many foreign experts say North Korea still has some other technological hurdles to master to acquire reliable nuclear-tipped ICBMs, such as one to protect warheads from the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry.

KCNA said the Hwasong-18 missile — launched at a high angle to avoid neighbouring countries — flew a distance of 1,002 kilometres (622 miles) for 73.5 minutes at a maximum altitude of 6,518 kilometres (4,050 miles) before landing in an area off the North’s east coast. It said Kim expressed “great satisfaction” with the launch, which verified again the reliability of “the most powerful strategic core striking means” of North Korea. It was the North’s third test of the Hwasong-18 missile. Its two previous launches were in April and July. “Based on their statement, this looks to have been an exercise in signaling and a developmental test in one,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “There’s nothing new here technically as far as I can tell at this early stage, but they’re certainly growing increasingly confident in their new solid propellant ICBM.”

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the North’s latest ICBM test is another indicator of how far its missile engine technology has progressed, but added there are limits to what North Korea can learn from lofted trajectory firings. “Demonstrating warhead targeting and reentry capabilities would involve provocative launches across greater distances,” Easley said. “So more significant tests of both technology and diplomacy are likely in the New Year.” KCNA said that a recent US-South Korean meeting to discuss their nuclear deterrence plan openly revealed their intention to hold joint drills with a simulated nuclear attack on North Korea.

It referred to the second Nuclear Consultative Group meeting between senior U.S. and South Korean officials Friday. During their meeting in Washington, the two countries agreed to update their nuclear deterrence and contingency strategies and incorporate nuclear operation scenarios in their combined military exercises in the summer, according to officials in Seoul. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said during a Cabinet Council meeting Tuesday that a “nuclear-based, powerful Korea-US alliance” would be formed soon. The nuclear consultative body is responsible for sharing information on nuclear and strategic weapons operation plans and joint operations, though the US will retain operational control of its nuclear weapons. The group’s establishment was part of US efforts to ease South Korean worries about North Korean provocations while keeping Seoul from pursuing its own nuclear programme. Since 2022, North Korea has performed more than 100 ballistic missile tests in violation of the United Nations’ bans in what outside experts call an effort to upgrade its nuclear arsenal and win greater US concessions. The North has still avoided fresh international sanctions as China and Russia blocked the US and others’ efforts to toughen UN sanctions on the country.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tuesday that Tokyo is coordinating with Washington and Seoul to arrange a United Nations Security Council meeting on Wednesday to discuss the North’s latest launch. He said Japan will try to get the council to fulfill its intended role. The United States and South Korea have expanded their military training, bolstered trilateral security cooperation with Japan and increased the temporary deployments of powerful US military assets in South Korea. On Tuesday, South Korea, the US and Japan began putting into operation the sharing of real-time missile warning data on North Korea and established details of their trilateral exercises in coming years, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. North Korea has viewed growing US-South Korea-Japan partnerships as a security threat and sought to boost its own ties with China and Russia in response.

Associated Press