Ukraine on the threshold of EU membership

The European Commission has said that the reforms in Ukraine have reached the final stage and negotiations can now begin for Kyiv’s membership in the European Union (EU). Ukraine’s goal was to be a member of the military alliance, NATO (Northern Atlantic Treaty Organisation) of the Cold War vintage. Russia had vehemently opposed it and President Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine in February 2022 was to pre-empt Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.

Russia has succeeded temporarily to prevent Ukraine’s entry into NATO. But EU, which has been supportive of Ukraine against Russia, though there have been differences over EU imposing economic sanctions against Russia because those sanctions impacted EU members, seems to offer Ukraine the second best offer, EU membership for Kyiv.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had been in Kyiv and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had told her how Ukraine carried out the necessary reforms in the governmental system in the middle of a war. Apart from Ukraine, the commission had included Moldova, Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina to the list of those for whom doors should be opened for EU membership. But the Ukraine case stands out. The commission in a statement said, “The Commission recommends that the EU (Council) opens accession negotiations with Ukraine.” The issue will be decided by a summit of EU leaders in December.

Ukraine’s membership of EU will create complications for both Ukraine and the EU because this is being done without wider consultation with the Ukrainian political parties and the Ukrainian people at large. The implications of EU membership on internal governance will be deep, and those who do not like it will call it intrusive. This is one of the reasons that there was opposition to the EU in Britain.

And some countries like Hungary are not too comfortable with the EU norms and rules for members. Ukrainians had not voted on the issue. There are of course advantages for war-hit Ukraine. The country will have free access to the continental markets, like the export of grains. In recent months, export of Ukrainian wheat through east European countries has caused problems because Hungary and Poland had felt that this was hurting their own farmers. And it will also allow Ukrainians to work anywhere in the EU. This could be to the advantage of EU but Ukraine may wants all its people to stay on the country and rebuild its war-ravaged economy.

Once it is part of the EU, Ukraine would want greater support from the EU in its fight against Russia, but it would be a complicated issue for EU. It will be so especially for European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Scholz who have reservations about antagonising Russia completely. Also, it is not clear what the obligations of EU are towards a country which is at war with a non-member like Russia.

Is EU obliged to help a member-country with military aid? Does it mean EU is at war with Russia when Ukraine becomes a member of the EU? The EU has been mainly an economic union which pushes itself to become a political union as well. One of the imperatives of EU membership is that the national laws of the member-countries have to conform to the EU codes.

So, there are uncomfortable questions that will crop up in any discussion of Ukraine becoming a member of EU. Ukraine can argue that as a member of EU it would need EU to give arms and send armies to defend Ukraine against Russia. One of the reasons that NATO had put off admitting Ukraine is the implication that NATO would be at war with Russia.