Argentina’s presidential election surprises

The Sunday voting in the Argentinian presidential election was inconclusive. Among the three main contestants, no one got the mandated 45 per cent of the vote to be declared a winner, nor did any of the three get 40 per cent and a 10-point lead over the nearest rival. So, Sergio Massa of the ruling Peronist coalition got 37 per cent of the vote.

The 51-year-old economy minister has been unsuccessfully battling a three digit inflation – 140 per cent – and 40 per cent poverty. His main opponent, maverick economist Javier Milei, has been offering a radical remedy to the ailing economy, to shut the central bank, banish the peso, dollarise the economy, cut off subsidies and reduce the size of the government. The pundits were so impressed by his radical programme that they predicted that he would be leading the race. But he ended up with a mere 30 per cent of the vote.

Patricia Bullrich ran on the predictable conservative agenda of being hard on crime. She got 23.8 per cent. So, in the November 19 run-off between Massa and Milei, there will be an interesting clash between two kinds of personalities – Massa, a pragmatist, and Milei, a no-holds barred market fanatic. According to experts, the winner in the Massa-Milei race would be the one who captures the majority of the Bullirch’s 23.8 per cent vote. It may be necessary for Massa to be more accommodative to the conservative voter, and Milei will have to tone down his radical programme.

Meanwhile, Argentina is steeped in a deep economic crisis. Massa as the minister of economy has been trying to set things right but so far he has not been able to do much. But the poor people have shown a preference for the Peronista agenda of taking care of the poor and using the state mechanism to provide subsidies to meet the basic needs of the majority of the poor. It is however clear that the hard decisions have to be taken about the falling peso and the soaring inflation and the dipping foreign exchange. Massa is aware of the challenge and he is aware of the need for compromise. But he is conscious of the fact that the poor need to be protected even as one takes tough measures to salvage the wrecked economy.

The Peronist political tradition is based on populism, which finds justification in a country of extreme inequality and grinding poverty. Massa has been in and out and back again with the Peronists because he seems to have grasped the fact that the bottom line indeed is that the poor cannot be allowed to sink beneath the bottom. What has surprised the political pundits who had predicted a victory for Milei is the people voting still for a Peronist coalition government which had failed to control inflation and tackle the economic crisis which is a burden for the poor more than it is for the rich. They seem to believe that a right radical like Milei is worse than the prevailing crisis.

Bullrich’s vote percentage shows that there is a significant segment of the electorate which has faith in conservative politics. Both Massa and Milei have to woo this segment to win the November 19 run-off. More than Massa and Milei, it is the Argentinians who face the tough test of choosing the leader. They need to choose one who will save the economy and who will also provide support to the poor.

Massa has to retain the Peronist working class base and add to it the votes of the moderates in the middle class. Massa considers himself a pragmatist, and it should be possible for him to make the necessary political compromises and not stick to rigid programmes.